A subsea gas pipeline and a telecommunications cable connecting Finland and Estonia under the Baltic Sea have been damaged, possibly as a result of a deliberate act, according to the Finnish government. The cause of the damage is still unclear, and an investigation is ongoing. However, there is no threat to energy safety or telecommunications connectivity. European gas prices have risen in response to the news. The repair of the damaged pipeline may take months, but it is not expected to significantly affect electricity prices in Finland.
| Signal | Change | 10y horizon | Driving force |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deliberate damage to gas pipeline, telecom cable | Damage to infrastructure | Improved security measures for critical infrastructure | Political motivations and tensions |
| Gas pipeline and telecom cable damaged | Disruption of energy and communication | Enhanced resilience and backup systems | Unknown motivations and conflicts |
| European gas prices rise on the news | Increased gas prices | Diversification of energy sources | Market demand and supply dynamics |
| Investigation ongoing for external damage | Uncertainty in security | Strengthened security measures and investigations | Desire for accountability and justice |
| Nordic gas pipelines previously damaged | Repeat of past sabotage incidents | Heightened security protocols and prevention measures | Historical tensions and conflicts |
| Repairing pipeline may take months | Lengthy repair process | Streamlined repair processes and technologies | Technological advancements and efficiency |
| Finland leases LNG terminal to replace Russian supply | Diversification of energy sources | Increased reliance on LNG imports | Geopolitical and economic considerations |
| Finland’s energy supply remains stable | Minimal impact on energy supply | Improved energy infrastructure and resilience | Strategic energy planning and investment |