The text discusses the volatility of official statistics due to lockdown disruptions and the impact on the economy. It highlights that in the second quarter of 2022, both the American and British GDP fell while employment rose, indicating a decrease in productivity. The weak productivity growth is attributed to the rehiring of workers who were previously let go, which is dragging down productivity. The article also explores the missing pandemic innovation boom, where digitization and new ways of working were expected to boost productivity growth but have not materialized. The reasons for the lack of productivity growth are attributed to short-term crisis management, working from home inefficiencies, and additional costs incurred due to the pandemic. The article concludes that there is little sign of the global economy becoming more productive and challenges the notion of a pandemic-era revival in productivity growth.
| Signal | Change | 10y horizon | Driving force |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unusually volatile official statistics | Weak productivity growth | Little sign of a productivity boom in the global economy | Short-term crisis management, investment spending |
| Missing pandemic innovation boom | Low productivity growth | Lack of new discoveries and use of frontier technology | Short-term crisis management, working from home |
| Investment spending not lifting productivity | Prioritizing short-term crisis management | Lack of long-term innovation and productivity growth | Short-term crisis management, investment spending |
| Working from home not improving productivity | Uncertain impact on productivity | Uncertain long-term impact on productivity | Working from home |
| Pandemic introducing inefficiencies | Decreased profitability | Spending on extra measures and increased sick days | Pandemic-related disruptions |