The maker of semaglutide, a weight-loss drug, Novo Nordisk, has reported a significant increase in sales and profits as health systems worldwide rush to use it to combat obesity. Sales of Novo Nordisk’s diabetes and obesity drugs rose from 113bn Danish kroner in 2022 to 154bn kroner in 2023. However, the company is struggling to keep up with the demand. Semaglutide’s effectiveness in promoting weight loss, compared to rival products, has given it widespread recognition, with notable individuals like Elon Musk and Boris Johnson claiming to have taken the drug. Novo Nordisk’s market value has nearly doubled since the start of 2022, making it Europe’s most valuable company. The company has launched sales in several countries, and the UK’s NHS has started prescribing semaglutide. Novo Nordisk is racing to meet demand, but supply constraints are expected despite efforts to expand production. Rival company Eli Lilly is also expected to gain approval for a weight-loss drug.
| Signal | Change | 10y horizon | Driving force |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blockbuster sales and profits for semaglutide | Increased adoption of semaglutide | Increased use of semaglutide in tackling obesity | Effectiveness of semaglutide |
| Novo Nordisk struggling to keep up with demand | Supply constraints for Wegovy | Continued periodic supply constraints for Wegovy | Limited production capacity |
| Semaglutide gaining household recognition | Increased awareness and usage of semaglutide | Widespread use of semaglutide as a weight-loss drug among the general public | Effectiveness and fame of semaglutide |
| Novo Nordisk’s rising market value | Increased market value of Novo Nordisk | Higher market value for Novo Nordisk | Success of semaglutide |
| Novo Nordisk restricting supplies of Wegovy | Restricted availability of Wegovy | Limited availability of Wegovy in the US | Production and continuity of care |
| Intensifying competition with Eli Lilly | Emergence of a rival weight-loss drug | Competitive market for weight-loss drugs | Approval of Eli Lilly’s product |