Futures

Monitoring Global Food Export Restrictions: Impact and Recent Developments, (from page 20220721.)

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Summary

The Food and Fertilizer Export Restrictions Tracker by IFPRI monitors global food export restrictions, particularly during crises like COVID-19 and the Ukraine-Russia conflict. These restrictions can lead to increased food insecurity in importing nations. The tracker provides data on the percentage of imported calories affected by such restrictions and allows comparisons with past food price crises. Recent updates show fluctuating restrictions, with some countries lifting bans while others, like India, impose new taxes and bans on exports to secure domestic supplies. The tracker updates daily, using verified data from reputable sources and is available for public access under an open data license.

Signals

name description change 10-year driving-force relevancy
Increased Food Export Restrictions Countries are increasingly imposing export restrictions on food and fertilizers to secure domestic supplies. A shift from open food trade to protectionist measures by various governments. In a decade, food export restrictions may become a common policy tool during crises, impacting global trade dynamics. Governments are motivated by the need to ensure food security amid rising prices and supply chain disruptions. 4
Tracking Food Trade Policies The establishment of trackers to monitor food export restrictions highlights the growing complexity of food trade. A move from reactive to proactive monitoring of food trade policies by governments and organizations. In ten years, comprehensive tracking systems may be standard, influencing policy decisions and trade agreements. The need for transparency and data-driven decision-making in food trade is driving the establishment of these trackers. 4
Global Food Price Crisis Awareness The ongoing monitoring of food and fertilizer policies reflects heightened awareness of global food price crises. A transition from isolated incidents of food price spikes to an ongoing global concern. In a decade, global food price management may involve international cooperation and policy alignment to mitigate crises. The urgency of addressing food insecurity and its implications for global stability is pushing this awareness. 5
Regional Export Policy Variability Countries are variably lifting and imposing export bans, indicating a fragmented policy landscape. From uniform trade practices to a landscape characterized by diverse regional policies. In ten years, food trade might be dictated by a patchwork of regional policies, complicating international agreements. National interests and regional food security concerns are influencing these policy variations. 4

Concerns

name description relevancy
Food Insecurity Due to Export Restrictions Increasing restrictions on food exports can exacerbate food insecurity in importing countries, affecting vulnerable populations. 5
Rising Food Prices Export restrictions contribute to surging food prices globally, further straining the economic situation for lower-income communities. 4
Impact of Climate Change on Food Supply Lack of adequate rains affecting food production leads to export taxes, which can disrupt international food trade. 3
Geopolitical Tensions and Food Supply Chains Political conflicts like the Ukraine crisis disrupt supply chains, leading to heightened export restrictions and volatility in food availability. 5
Increased Trade Restrictions A trend of rising export bans and taxes may lead to a cycle of protectionism, hindering global trade and cooperation. 4
Data Reliability on Export Restrictions The accuracy and timeliness of export restriction data can impact response measures and policy implementations. 3

Behaviors

name description relevancy
Monitoring Food Export Restrictions Tracking and documenting food export restrictions globally to assess their impact on food security and trade. 5
Imposition of Export Taxes Countries are increasingly imposing export taxes to secure domestic food supplies amid rising prices and supply chain issues. 4
Withdrawal of Export Bans Some countries are lifting previously imposed export bans in response to changing market conditions and domestic needs. 4
Response to Global Crises National governments are adapting their food trade policies in response to global crises like the Ukraine conflict and COVID-19. 5
Increased Use of Data Tracking Tools The emergence of tools like the Food and Fertilizer Export Restrictions Tracker to provide real-time data on export restrictions. 5
Comparative Analysis with Historical Crises Utilizing historical data from past food crises for comparison and to understand current trends and impacts on food trade. 4

Technologies

description relevancy src
A digital tool for monitoring and analyzing food and fertilizer export restrictions globally, providing real-time data and insights. 5 9bc30bd3a2acaf75fb77dbb5a076114f
A licensing model that promotes the sharing and use of data, enhancing transparency and collaboration in research and policy-making. 4 9bc30bd3a2acaf75fb77dbb5a076114f
A system developed to assess the effects of export restrictions on food trade, aiding in policy evaluation and response. 4 9bc30bd3a2acaf75fb77dbb5a076114f

Issues

name description relevancy
Food Export Restrictions The rise of food export restrictions is threatening global food security, particularly for vulnerable importing countries. 5
Impact of Geopolitical Conflicts on Food Supply Geopolitical tensions, such as the Ukraine-Russia conflict, are exacerbating food price surges and supply chain disruptions. 5
Climate Change Effects on Agriculture Climate-related challenges, such as inadequate rains, are impacting agricultural yields, prompting countries to impose export restrictions. 4
COVID-19 Pandemic Legacy in Food Trade Policies The lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are influencing current food trade policies and export restrictions. 4
Food Price Crisis Comparison The ability to compare current export restrictions to past crises (like 2007-08) may reveal patterns and future risks in food security. 3