Futures

The Impact of Generative AI on the UK General Election, from (20240210.)

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Summary

Generative AI poses potential challenges for the upcoming UK general election. Concerns include the creation of deep fake videos and the misuse of voter analytical data combined with AI to create personalized communications. There is a need for a clear code of conduct for political actors to regulate their use of AI tools during the campaign. Mitigating AI bias and handling deep-fakes are important considerations. Tracking election activities and ensuring transparency are crucial. Education and promoting critical thinking are vital for dealing with AI-created content. The potential risks include disinformation, spoof attacks, and misleading robocalls, which can undermine the integrity of the electoral process.

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Signals

Signal Change 10y horizon Driving force
Generative AI and UK general election From potential threats to electoral integrity Code of conduct, tracking, education Preservation of electoral integrity
Outsourcing election protection to tech firms Shifting responsibility to external entities More involvement and regulation by UK government Lack of expertise and understanding in political parties
Clear code of conduct for political actors Regulation and guidelines Enhanced transparency and accountability Protection of democratic process
Tracking and monitoring of digital campaigning Increased visibility and accountability Better understanding of campaign activities Increased scrutiny and transparency
Importance of education on AI and critical thinking Building knowledge and awareness More informed and discerning public Mitigating the spread of disinformation
Potential intervention by UK security services Addressing external threats Enhanced protection against bad foreign actors National security concerns
Addressing deep fakes, voter data manipulation, and disinformation Safeguarding electoral integrity Reduced influence of synthetic content Ensuring fair and accurate elections
Increase in spoof attacks and misleading robocalls Threatening election integrity Heightened vigilance and safeguards Protection against manipulation and fraud

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