The study highlights the underestimated risks of harvest failures in multiple global breadbaskets due to climate change. It emphasizes the importance of understanding the threat climate change poses to food systems. The research examines the likelihood of simultaneous low yields in major food producing regions and the potential consequences such as price spikes, food insecurity, and civil unrest. The study reveals that the concentration of greenhouse gases and the resulting extreme weather events are largely underestimated. It also points out the limitations of current computer models in accurately assessing these risks, calling for better preparation for complex climate risks in the future. The United Nations’ human rights chief has also warned about the terrifying future of hunger and suffering caused by climate change-driven extremes.
| Signal | Change | 10y horizon | Driving force |
|---|---|---|---|
| Risks of harvest failures underestimated | Underestimation of climate change risk | Increased awareness and preparedness | Climate change impact on food systems |
| Food production is a source of emissions | Transition to sustainable practices | Increased adoption of sustainable methods | Environmental consciousness |
| Climate and crop models used to assess impacts | Improved modeling accuracy | More accurate predictions | Advancements in modeling technology |
| Simultaneous low yields lead to price spikes | Economic instability | Increased food insecurity | Interplay of supply and demand in food markets |
| Jet stream fluctuations affect crop producing regions | Impact on agricultural productivity | Decreased crop yields | Jet stream meandering patterns |
| Computer models underestimate extreme weather | Inadequate assessment of risks | Improved modeling accuracy | Advancements in modeling technology |
| Climate change-driven extremes impact food security | Increased food insecurity | Worsened hunger and suffering | Climate change impact on ecosystems |
| World leaders criticized for short-term thinking | Need for long-term solutions | Increased focus on sustainable measures | Lack of prioritization of climate change |