Futures

Study Highlights Underestimated Risks of Simultaneous Harvest Failures Due to Climate Change, (from page 20230715.)

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Summary

A study published in Nature Communications warns that the risks of simultaneous harvest failures in major global food-producing regions are underestimated, largely due to climate change impacts. Researchers from the U.S. and Germany analyzed data from 1960 to 2014 and projections for 2045 to 2099, highlighting the significant effects of the jet stream on agricultural yields in regions like North America, Eastern Europe, and East Asia. They found that extreme weather events linked to jet stream fluctuations have previously resulted in simultaneous crop failures, leading to food insecurity and price spikes. The study emphasizes the need for better risk assessment and preparedness for future climate-related agricultural challenges, with UN officials warning of a potential increase in hunger due to climate change.

Signals

name description change 10-year driving-force relevancy
Underestimated Harvest Failures Global breadbasket harvest failures are underestimated due to climate change impacts. From underestimated risks of harvest failures to recognition of significant climate threats. In 10 years, food production may be critically affected, leading to global food insecurity. Growing awareness of climate change impacts on food systems and the urgency to address them. 5
Jet Stream Variability Strong meandering of the jet stream is affecting agricultural yields significantly. From stable weather patterns to increased variability affecting crop production. Increased jet stream variability may lead to unpredictable agricultural productivity and food shortages. Climate change is altering atmospheric patterns, impacting food systems worldwide. 4
Complex Climate Risks Climate models are underestimating complex combinations of extreme weather events. From basic weather predictions to a need for complex risk assessments. Future models may evolve to better predict extreme weather combinations impacting agriculture. The necessity for improved climate risk assessment tools in agriculture. 4
Rising Global Hunger Climate change could increase global hunger significantly by mid-century. From current hunger levels to a potential increase by 80 million people by 2050. By 2033, more than 900 million people may face hunger due to climate impacts. The intersection of climate change and food security is becoming increasingly urgent. 5
Civil Unrest from Food Insecurity Food insecurity driven by climate change may lead to civil unrest. From stable food systems to potential civil unrest due to food shortages. Increased food insecurity may trigger social unrest and conflicts in vulnerable regions. The connection between food systems and social stability is becoming clearer under climate pressures. 4

Concerns

name description relevancy
Underestimated Harvest Failures The risk of simultaneous crop failures in major food regions is underestimated, posing a serious threat to food security and economies. 5
Climate Change Impact on Food Security Climate change is expected to worsen food insecurity, potentially increasing hunger levels significantly by mid-century. 5
Ineffective Climate Models Current climate models fail to accurately capture the magnitude of extreme weather impacts on agriculture, leading to inadequate preparation for future risks. 4
Increased Civil Unrest Due to Food Prices Price spikes from harvest failures could lead to civil unrest, highlighting the social implications of agricultural failures. 4
Uncharted Climate Extremes The increasing concentration of greenhouse gases leads to unpredictable extreme weather patterns that could severely affect food production. 5
Deterioration of Ecosystems Climate change threatens crucial ecosystems, contributing to a dystopian future of hunger and suffering if left unaddressed. 5

Behaviors

name description relevancy
Increased Awareness of Climate Risks There is a growing recognition of the underestimated risks of simultaneous harvest failures due to climate change, prompting calls for urgent action. 5
Focus on Complex Climate Modeling A shift towards improving computer models to better predict complex interactions and extremes in climate that affect food production. 4
Food Insecurity Preparedness An emerging emphasis on preparing for food insecurity linked to climate extremes, highlighting the need for strategic planning in agriculture. 5
Global Collaboration for Food Security An increase in collaboration among nations and organizations to address food security challenges exacerbated by climate change. 4
Public Advocacy for Long-Term Thinking Growing public advocacy for long-term strategies to combat climate impacts on food systems, moving away from short-term policy solutions. 5

Technologies

name description relevancy
Advanced Climate Models Models that incorporate complex interactions of climate variables and their impact on food systems, providing better risk assessments for agriculture. 5
Jet Stream Analysis Technologies Technologies designed to study and predict the behavior of jet streams and their effects on weather patterns crucial for agriculture. 4
Food Security Monitoring Systems Systems that monitor global food production and risks, aiming to predict and mitigate food insecurity due to climate change. 5
Sustainable Agricultural Practices Innovative farming practices that adapt to changing climate conditions to ensure food security and reduce emissions. 4
Climate Resilient Crop Varieties Development of crop varieties that can withstand extreme weather events and changing climate conditions, ensuring stable yields. 5

Issues

name description relevancy
Underestimated Harvest Failures The risk of simultaneous harvest failures in global breadbaskets is underestimated, threatening food security and stability. 5
Climate Change Impact on Food Systems Climate change poses significant risks to food production, leading to increased food insecurity and potential civil unrest. 5
Jet Stream Fluctuations Changes in the jet stream are linked to extreme weather events that can cause crop failures, particularly in major agricultural regions. 4
Inadequate Risk Assessment Models Current climate models fail to accurately assess the magnitude of climate extremes affecting agricultural yields. 4
Rising Global Hunger Climate change could exacerbate global hunger, increasing the number of people facing food insecurity significantly. 5