Scientists have found that tiny changes in GPS signals could potentially allow us to predict large earthquakes roughly two hours in advance. By analyzing GPS data from 90 large earthquakes, the researchers discovered evidence for a preceding phase of slip on the fault lines of tectonic plates, which eventually leads to powerful tremors. While previous efforts to predict earthquakes have been challenging due to the lack of understanding of the connection between signals and seismic activity, this research suggests a reliable method may have been found. However, further research is still needed to confirm and fully understand the potential of this method. If successfully integrated into early-warning systems, it could provide advanced notice to residents before the occurrence of a major earthquake.
| Signal | Change | 10y horizon | Driving force |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tiny changes in GPS signals predict earthquakes | Predictability of earthquakes | Integration into early-warning systems | Mitigating disasters |
| Previous efforts to predict earthquakes have failed | Difficulty in anticipating earthquakes | Improved understanding of seismic activity | Desire for advanced notice and warning |
| GPS data shows exponential acceleration of slip before earthquakes | Identification of precursory phase | Reliable measurement and warning systems | Advancement in technology and data analysis |
| More research needed to confidently predict earthquakes | Uncertainty in measuring precursor slips | Increased knowledge and understanding | Desire for accurate prediction and warning |
| Integration of data into automated early-warning systems | Enhanced earthquake warning systems | Increased preparedness and safety measures | Integration of technology into disaster response |