Futures

Resilience 2.0: A Strategic Foresight Report for the EU’s Future Security and Growth, (from page 20251012d.)

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Summary

The 2025 Strategic Foresight Report presents “Resilience 2.0”, an EU approach aimed at fostering growth amidst global challenges such as climate change, security concerns, and the erosion of international order. Recognizing that the EU must proactively address both risks and future opportunities, this report outlines strategies for economic competitiveness, technological innovation, societal well-being, and the strengthening of democratic values. Key actions include establishing a coherent global vision for the EU, enhancing security measures, leading in ethical technology governance, ensuring sustainable economic growth, fostering inclusive well-being, reforming education, and addressing intergenerational fairness. The report emphasizes resilience and proactive strategies as essential for navigating the uncertainties ahead through 2040 and beyond.

Signals

name description change 10-year driving-force relevancy
Erosion of International Order Declining adherence to international norms affects global diplomacy and cooperation. Shifting from a rules-based order to more unilateral and power-based approaches. International relations may become more fragmented, with increased regionalism and local powers. Geopolitical rivalries and nationalistic policies undermining collective international efforts. 4
Climate Change Acceleration The pace of climate change and environmental degradation is escalating beyond previous forecasts. Moving from gradual environmental changes to more immediate and impactful climate crises. Increased frequency of climate-related disasters impacting economies and societal resilience. Industrial activities, deforestation, and greenhouse gas emissions outpacing regulatory controls. 5
Security-Centric Policies Growing emphasis on security in policy-making indicates heightened global tensions. Transforming from development-oriented policies to security-driven frameworks. National policies may increasingly prioritize defense and surveillance over civil liberties. Rising threats from terrorism, cyber-attacks, and state conflicts prompting security reevaluation. 4
Technological Innovation and Ethics Emergence of ethical considerations in technology shaping EU innovation policies. From technology development for economic growth to values-based innovation frameworks. Technology governance may prioritize human rights and ethical implications of digital advancements. Public concern over privacy, surveillance, and AI impacts on society and culture. 3
Demographic and Societal Resilience Pressures Increased recognition of socio-economic inequalities and health disparities impacting resilience. Shifting from uniform growth strategies to tailored approaches addressing regional disparities. Potential for enhanced social cohesion or increased tension due to unequal resource distribution. Aging populations and migration trends influencing workforce dynamics and social policies. 4
Reimagining Education Education reforms are intertwined with future labor market demands and social policies. Move from traditional education models to skills and future-oriented curriculum development. Workforce may become more adaptable, with lifelong learning integrated into career paths. Rapid technological changes necessitating continuous skill upgrades and education reform. 4

Concerns

name description
Erosion of International Order Deterioration of established global frameworks may lead to increased conflicts and instability.
Climate Change Impact Rapidly worsening climate change effects threaten ecosystems, economies, and human health.
Technological Tensions Struggles balancing technology development with ethical values may lead to societal friction.
Societal Well-Being Pressures Demographic and regional disparities can impact mental health and community resilience.
Democracy Under Threat External and internal pressures on democratic systems can lead to polarization and disinformation.
Economic Competitiveness vs. Strategic Autonomy Tensions between economic growth and independence may create policy conflicts.
Intergenerational Fairness Current policies might disproportionately affect future generations, undermining their well-being.
Security Focus in Policy A central focus on security may overshadow other vital policy areas such as social programs.

Behaviors

name description
Proactive Risk Scanning Implementing a systematic approach to identify and anticipate emerging risks and opportunities beyond conventional scenarios.
Technology-Savvy Security Frameworks Developing security policies that leverage advanced technologies while adhering to ethical guidelines.
Social Market Economy Transition Shifting towards economic models that prioritize sustainability, inclusiveness, and social equity.
Educational Reform Linked to Labor Markets Reimagining education systems to better align with future labor market demands and social policies.
Strengthening Democracy Initiatives Implementing measures to counter polarization and enhance community engagement to safeguard democratic values.
Intergenerational Decision-Making Ensuring current policies consider the impacts on future generations to promote long-term fairness.
Global Governance in High-Impact Technologies Leading efforts to establish ethical frameworks and governance for new technologies on a global scale.

Technologies

name description
Resilience 2.0 A strategic approach for the EU to enhance adaptability and thrive amidst complex global challenges and uncertainties.
Technology-savvy security approach Developing a forward-looking security strategy that integrates advanced technology and civil-military synergies.
Ethical and science-based governance for technology Shaping global governance frameworks that ensure high-impact technologies are developed ethically and responsibly.
Sustainable and inclusive growth strategies Economic policies designed to ensure growth is both sustainable and equitable across different demographic groups.
Future-oriented education reform Reforming education systems to align with future labor market needs and social policies.
Digital tools to counter disinformation Utilizing advanced technologies to combat algorithm-driven polarization and disinformation campaigns.

Issues

name description
Erosion of International Rules-Based Order The decline of established international norms affecting global cooperation and conflict resolution.
Climate Change Impacts Accelerating environmental degradation impacting ecosystems, economies, and societal stability.
Security Centrality in Policy Increasing focus on security issues influencing all areas of policy-making within the EU.
Economic Competitiveness vs. Strategic Autonomy Tensions arising from the need to balance economic growth with self-sufficiency.
Technology and EU Values The challenge of ensuring technology development aligns with EU ethical values.
Societal Resilience and Well-Being Addressing mental health, demographic shifts, and regional disparities to strengthen social resilience.
Threats to Democracy Internal and external pressures posing risks to democratic values and processes.
Intergenerational Fairness The need to ensure policies do not negatively impact future generations.
Reimagining Education Adapting education systems for future job markets and societal needs.
Sustainable Economic Growth The pursuit of inclusive growth while prioritizing sustainability and environmental goals.