Futures

Keywords

Dunbar-scale
social connections
trust
community size
technological paradigms

Themes

Dunbar’s Number
social networks
community cohesion
technology
internet effect

Other

Category: technology
Type: blog post

Summary

The text explores the concept of Dunbar’s Number, which suggests that humans can maintain stable social relationships with about 150 individuals. It discusses the historical context of small hunter-gatherer bands and how trust and cooperation flourished in these settings without formal laws. However, as communities grow beyond this limit, maintaining social cohesion becomes challenging, leading to issues like sociopathic behaviors. The text also examines modern technologies, from language to the internet, that have disrupted social structures. While the internet connects more people, it often erodes trust, prompting a retreat to smaller, high-trust communities as an evolved solution, suggesting these might be the key to sustaining social cohesion in today’s digital age.

Signals

name	description	change	10-year	driving-force	relevancy
Reversion to smaller communities	People are retreating to smaller, high-trust communities like group chats and Discord servers.	Shift from large online platforms to smaller, more intimate community settings.	In ten years, we might see a revival of localized, close-knit communities focusing on trust and mutual support.	The breakdown of trust in large networks, leading to a desire for safer, more connected spaces.	4
Dunbar’s Number in digital age	The cognitive limit of 150 relationships still influences social organization today.	From larger networks with low trust to smaller networks with higher cohesion.	The understanding of human cognitive limits may shape future social media platforms prioritizing smaller connections.	Human cognitive constraints in managing relationships in increasingly digital interactions.	5
Disruption by technology	New technological paradigms significantly disrupt established social structures and norms.	Transition from traditional, stable social structures to fluid, technology-driven connections.	Emerging technologies may redefine the way communities are formed, maintained, and trusted.	Constant technological innovation calls for adaptability in social organization.	4
Memetic epidemics	Social media is plagued by bots and harassment, leading to widespread distrust.	Deterioration of public trust in online interactions and platforms.	In ten years, society may incorporate stricter regulations and design principles to combat online toxicity.	The need for healthier online environments amidst growing challenges of misinformation and aggression.	5
Emergence of the Cozyweb	People are forming smaller online networks that emphasize trust and intimacy.	Shift from public, chaotic online platforms to private, reliable social environments.	In a decade, we may see a rise of technology that fosters these smaller, vetted communities.	Desire for genuine social connections in a landscape filled with noise and hostility.	3

Concerns

name	description
Cognitive Overload in Networking	As social networks scale beyond Dunbar’s Number, individuals face cognitive limits in maintaining relationships, leading to potential trust breakdowns.
Exploiting Sociopathic Behaviors	In large networks, individuals may exploit trust and engage in sociopathic behaviors without accountability.
Ineffective Institutions for New Information Environments	Current institutions struggle to adapt to the rapid pace of change brought by digital connectivity, leading to social fragmentation.
Memetic Epidemics and Harassment	The prevalence of harmful behaviors such as trolling and coordinated harassment in large social media networks creates hostile environments.
Loss of High-Trust Communities	As social media grows, individuals may retreat to smaller, high-trust communities, potentially fragmenting society further.
Disruption from New Technological Paradigms	Emerging technologies can significantly disrupt established social structures and norms, requiring adaptation and new forms of governance.
Failure to Scale Trust	Current strategies to scale trust in larger networks are ineffective, leading to increased alienation and lack of cooperation among individuals.

Behaviors

name	description
Retreating to Smaller Communities	As social media expands beyond Dunbar’s number, individuals are forming smaller, trusted communities like group chats and Discords for better social cohesion.
Scaling Trust through Technological Hacks	Communities are using kinship, hierarchies, and market systems as ‘hacks’ to maintain trust and cohesion despite larger sizes.
Leveraging Digital Tools for Small-Group Interaction	The rise of digital platforms enables the formation and maintenance of smaller, intimate social circles in a highly connected world.
Navigating Sociopathic Behaviors	In large, unregulated networks, individuals adapt by recognizing and mitigating sociopathic behaviors that proliferate in low-trust environments.
Creation of High-Trust Digital Spaces	Individuals are actively seeking and establishing high-trust digital communities to counter the toxicity of large social media platforms.
Coping with Information Overload	As the internet connects everyone, people are increasingly looking for ways to cope with the overwhelming amount of information and social interactions.
Reinvention of Social Structures Post-Disruption	Society is in a state of flux, seeking new institutions (like democracy and liberalism) to manage the disruptions caused by large-scale information sharing.
Emerging Memetic Epidemics	Large networks give rise to new forms of social contagion, such as trolls or harassment mobs, reshaping community dynamics.

Technologies

name	description
Dunbar-scale communities	Social structures that leverage small, high-trust groups to enhance cooperation and social cohesion.
Digital communication platforms	Tools like Discord and Slack that facilitate smaller group interactions and maintain trust among participants.
Social media evolution	The transformation of social platforms to better manage relationships and interactions at scale, adapting to user needs.
Decentralized trust mechanisms	Innovative solutions to foster trust and cooperation in large online communities beyond Dunbar’s Number.
Network effect moderation tools	Technologies designed to manage the effects of large social networks, minimizing negative behaviors.

Issues

name	description
Dunbar’s Number and Community Size	As communities exceed Dunbar’s Number (150), social cohesion diminishes, leading to trust issues and free-rider problems.
Technological Disruption of Social Structures	The impact of new technologies like the internet and social media on traditional social structures, leading to fragmentation and the rise of new communication patterns.
High-Trust Small Communities	The emergence of smaller, high-trust communities as a response to the failures of larger social networks and institutions is becoming more prevalent.
Sociopathic Behavior in Large Networks	In large social networks, sociopathic behaviors become advantageous due to the lack of transparency and trust.
Challenges of Managing Online Communities	The increasing difficulty in managing trust and cooperation in online communities due to the prevalence of trolls, bots, and harmful behaviors.
Retreat to Private Platforms	Individuals are withdrawing from public social media to private platforms like group chats and Discords to regain a sense of community.
Need for New Institutions	The failure of existing institutions to manage the new communication tools and their consequences highlights a significant gap in governance.