Satellites are providing valuable insights into the coming global harvest. The analysis of crop health suggests that Russia could be the only major winner, with other wheat-producing countries facing weaker harvests due to bad weather. Sébastien Neveux, a farmer in France’s main wheat-producing region, has experienced a 40% loss in his wheat crop due to drought and intense heat. The analysis, conducted using satellite images, weather data, and soil moisture information, reveals that the EU could see 4.7 million tonnes less wheat than last year. The global population’s increasing demand for wheat, coupled with extreme weather events and geopolitical tensions, is contributing to concerns about a potential food crisis.
| Signal | Change | 10y horizon | Driving force |
|---|---|---|---|
| Satellite analysis of crop health | From relying on traditional methods to using advanced technology | More accurate and timely crop health assessments | Increasing demand for food and need for efficient agriculture |
| Unpredictable weather affecting wheat crops | From stable and predictable weather patterns to increased variability | More frequent and severe crop losses due to climate change | Climate change and global warming |
| Potential decrease in wheat harvests | From anticipated yields to lower-than-expected yields | Increased food prices and potential food shortages | Unfavorable weather conditions and geopolitical issues |
| Russia could become a major wheat exporter | From relying on other wheat-exporting countries to self-sufficiency | Increased global competition and political leverage | Favourable weather conditions and potential political motivations |
| Global increase in wheat production | From current production levels to higher levels | Improved food security and lower food prices | Growing global population and increasing demand for wheat |
| Vulnerability of global food system | From resilient to shocks to increased vulnerability | Greater risks of food crises and shortages | Climate change, geopolitical conflicts, and limited diversity in food sources |
| Need for more resistant plant varieties | From traditional crop varieties to genetically modified or selectively bred varieties | Enhanced crop resilience and adaptability to climate change | Climate change and the need for sustainable agriculture |
| Importance of accurate crop forecasts | From reliance on estimations to data-driven predictions | Improved decision-making and planning for agricultural stakeholders | Increased access to advanced technology and data analysis |
| Potential impact of war on global food system | From stable food supply to disruptions and instability | Increased food prices and shortages in conflict-affected regions | Geopolitical conflicts and political motivations |
| Increased risks of food crises | From stable food supply to potential shortages | Widespread hunger and social unrest | Climate change, geopolitical conflicts, and limited resources |