As global wheat harvests approach, countries that import wheat are hoping for increased production to lower high prices. However, analysis indicates that major producers like the US, France, and Ukraine may face reduced yields due to adverse weather conditions. In France, farmers report significant losses from drought and late rain, while India has imposed a wheat export ban due to lower expected production. Conversely, Canada sees improved yields, and Russia anticipates a bountiful harvest, which could grant it political leverage. Global wheat prices remain elevated, exacerbated by supply issues linked to the war in Ukraine and climate change, raising concerns about future food security.
| name | description | change | 10-year | driving-force | relevancy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Declining Wheat Yields | Major wheat-exporting countries are experiencing lower than expected yields due to adverse weather. | Decline in wheat production from major exporters to potential food shortages. | Increased reliance on diverse sources of wheat and alternative crops due to unpredictable yields. | Climate change leading to extreme weather patterns affecting agricultural productivity. | 4 |
| Rising Food Prices | Despite slight drops, wheat prices remain significantly higher than previous years, impacting low-income countries. | From stable food prices to increased volatility and higher costs for staple foods. | Food insecurity may rise, particularly in low-income countries reliant on wheat imports. | Global supply chain disruptions and adverse agricultural conditions driving up prices. | 5 |
| Increased Wheat Export Restrictions | Countries are implementing export bans to protect domestic supply amidst global shortages. | Shift from export-oriented agriculture to prioritizing local food security. | Countries may adopt more protectionist policies, affecting global trade dynamics. | National food security concerns in response to global supply chain vulnerabilities. | 4 |
| Technological Adaptation in Agriculture | Farmers are seeking more resilient crops to adapt to climate change impacts on yields. | Shift from traditional farming to innovative agricultural practices and crop varieties. | Widespread adoption of genetically modified or climate-resistant crops becomes common. | Need for sustainable food production in the face of changing climate conditions. | 4 |
| Political Leverage through Food Supplies | Russia may use its wheat exports as political leverage amid global food crises. | From food as a commodity to a tool for geopolitical influence. | Food supply may increasingly be used as leverage in international relations and conflicts. | Geopolitical dynamics and strategic resource management in times of crisis. | 3 |
| Vulnerability of Global Food Systems | The pandemic and geopolitical tensions have highlighted the fragility of food supply chains. | Shift from perceived stability to recognition of vulnerabilities in food systems. | More robust global food systems with diversified supply sources become a priority. | Increasing awareness of risks associated with concentrated food production and supply. | 5 |
| Adaptation of Farming Practices | Farmers are changing their practices to face climate challenges and ensure crop survival. | Transition from traditional farming methods to adaptive, innovative approaches. | Agricultural practices become more resilient and diversified to combat climate effects. | Need for immediate response to climate change challenges for sustainable agriculture. | 4 |
| name | description | relevancy |
|---|---|---|
| Climate Change Impact on Crop Yields | Extreme weather events due to climate change could drastically lower wheat yields globally, threatening food security. | 5 |
| Global Food Supply Vulnerability | The reliance on a few major countries for wheat exports creates a fragile food supply chain that can be easily disrupted by political or environmental factors. | 5 |
| Political Leverage through Grain Supply | Russia’s potential use of grain exports for political manipulation could destabilize international relations and food supplies. | 4 |
| Dependence on Fertilizers | Increasing prices and restricted access to fertilizers, largely sourced from Russia, could lead to reduced agricultural outputs and food shortages. | 5 |
| Economic Pressure on Low-Income Countries | High wheat prices, exacerbated by limited supply, will disproportionately affect low-income nations that rely on wheat imports, leading to potential crises. | 5 |
| Export Bans and Trade Restrictions | Countries like India imposing export bans on wheat can lead to global supply shortages and heightened food insecurity elsewhere. | 4 |
| Emerging Plant Resistance Needs | The urgent need for developing crop varieties that can withstand climate adversities presents significant agricultural and scientific challenges. | 3 |
| name | description | relevancy |
|---|---|---|
| Data-Driven Agriculture | Farmers are increasingly relying on satellite and data analytics to assess crop health and predict yields, adapting to climate challenges. | 5 |
| Climate-Resilient Crops | There is a growing need for developing and cultivating wheat varieties that are more resistant to climate-related stresses like drought and heat. | 5 |
| Government Intervention in Food Supply | Countries are implementing export bans and other measures to manage their domestic food supply in response to global shortages. | 4 |
| Adaptation to Extreme Weather | Farmers are changing their farming practices in response to unpredictable weather patterns caused by climate change. | 4 |
| Political Use of Food Resources | Countries may use their agricultural resources as leverage in geopolitical negotiations, especially amid global crises. | 4 |
| Increased Food Insecurity Awareness | The pandemic and geopolitical conflicts have heightened global awareness of vulnerabilities in the food supply chain, leading to calls for better preparedness. | 5 |
| Sustainability in Agriculture | There is a growing emphasis on sustainable farming practices to mitigate the impact of climate change on food production. | 4 |
| Market Reactions to Supply Changes | Global food prices are increasingly sensitive to supply changes and expectations, driven by weather conditions and geopolitical factors. | 5 |
| name | description | relevancy |
|---|---|---|
| Satellite Crop Monitoring | Using satellite imagery to analyze plant health by measuring infrared light reflection. | 5 |
| Data Analytics for Agriculture | Analyzing weather and soil moisture data in conjunction with satellite imagery to predict crop yields. | 5 |
| Drought-Resistant Crop Varieties | Developing plant species that can better withstand extreme weather conditions due to climate change. | 4 |
| Precision Agriculture Technologies | Technologies that enhance farming efficiency and crop management through data-driven insights. | 4 |
| Climate-Resilient Farming Practices | Adaptive farming methods aimed at coping with unpredictable climate impacts on agriculture. | 4 |
| name | description | relevancy |
|---|---|---|
| Global Wheat Supply Vulnerability | The reliance on a few countries for wheat exports poses risks to global food security amid climate change and geopolitical tensions. | 5 |
| Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture | Extreme weather patterns are increasingly affecting crop yields, highlighting the need for adaptive farming practices and resilient crop varieties. | 5 |
| Political Leverage through Food Supply | Countries with surplus grain, like Russia, may exploit food supplies for political gain, complicating global trade dynamics. | 4 |
| Economic Consequences of High Food Prices | Record high wheat prices impact low-income countries the hardest, potentially leading to increased hunger and social unrest. | 5 |
| Innovation in Crop Resistance | The urgency for developing crop varieties that can withstand climate change is becoming increasingly critical for food production. | 4 |
| Geopolitical Tensions Affecting Food Security | Ongoing conflicts, such as the Russia-Ukraine war, disrupt agricultural exports and contribute to global food crises. | 5 |
| Fertilizer Dependency and Food Production | Rising fertilizer prices and limited access due to geopolitical issues could lead to reduced agricultural yields in the future. | 4 |