Futures

Emerging Global Risks: Climate Change, Geopolitical Tensions, and Technological Threats in 2025, (from page 20251221.)

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Summary

The Future Risks Report 2025 highlights the rising complexity of global risks, with social fragmentation intensifying vulnerabilities. In this edition, climate change remains the leading risk for experts and the general population, followed closely by geopolitical instability and cybersecurity. The survey, which includes insights from over 3,600 experts and 23,000 individuals worldwide, reveals a significant sense of vulnerability, with a notable decline in confidence regarding public authorities’ preparedness. Additionally, emerging technological risks, particularly related to AI, are growing in concern. Changing demographics enter the top ten risks for the first time, emphasizing the potential strain on healthcare systems due to an aging population. The report calls for a holistic approach to risk management that prioritizes local solutions, while the insurance sector is identified as a crucial player in risk mitigation.

Signals

name description change 10-year driving-force relevancy
Erosion of Public Trust in Authorities Confidence in public authorities to manage crises is declining. Public confidence shifts from trust in authorities to skepticism regarding their capabilities. In 10 years, communities may largely rely on local initiatives rather than central authorities for crisis management. Increasing complexity and frequency of crises erodes public trust in government effectiveness and preparedness. 4
Emergence of Technological Risks Technological risks are appearing at an unprecedented pace, with growing public concerns. Shift from traditional risks to rapid emerging technological threats in public perception and expert discussions. In a decade, society might prioritize cybersecurity and AI risk management in policies and everyday practices. The rapid advancement of technology outpaces existing risk management frameworks, raising new societal concerns. 5
Declining Fertility and Aging Population For the first time, demographic changes are recognized in emerging top risks. A significant demographic shift impacts workforce availability and healthcare system sustainability. In 10 years, societies may struggle with aging populations and insufficient workforce to support them, stressing healthcare systems. Changing demographics challenge existing social support structures and require urgent policy adjustments. 4
Recognition of Polycrisis Phenomenon The increasing interconnection of risks is seen as a new trend. Government and expert focus is shifting toward holistic management of intertwined risks rather than isolated ones. In a decade, there may be systemic approaches to risk assessment that incorporate multiple, interconnected crises. The acknowledgment of complex interrelations among various global threats drives the need for comprehensive risk management strategies. 5

Concerns

name description
Social Fragmentation Increased social fragmentation erodes trust in public authorities and complicates collective risk management.
Climate Change Vulnerability Persistent high levels of vulnerability to climate change in society highlight inadequate preparedness of public authorities.
Geopolitical Instability Ongoing geopolitical tensions pose a significant risk of global conflict, affecting international stability and security.
Emerging Technological Risks Rapid advancements in technology, particularly around cybersecurity and AI, are creating new vulnerabilities and complexities.
Demographic Challenges Declining fertility rates combined with increasing life expectancy may lead to healthcare system strain due to a shrinking workforce.

Behaviors

name description
Increased Recognition of Polycrisis Growing awareness among experts and the public of interconnected crises amplifying vulnerabilities globally.
Erosion of Confidence in Authorities Declining trust in public authorities’ ability to manage risks effectively, noted by a majority of the population.
Holistic Risk Management Approach Emerging necessity to view risk management through a comprehensive lens, considering various types of risks together.
Shift in Risk Perception Related to Technology Rising concern about technological risks, particularly in AI and cybersecurity, increasing awareness among the general population.
Demographic Change Awareness Increased recognition of risks associated with changing demographics and its implications on workforce and healthcare systems.
Role of Insurers in Risk Management Growing consensus that insurers play a crucial role in mitigating future risks and providing local solutions.
Public Opinion on Crisis Vulnerability High levels of perceived vulnerability to climate change and geopolitical instability among both experts and the general public.

Technologies

name description
Cybersecurity Addressing the increasing vulnerabilities of critical infrastructures and the potential for AI-related threats to human rights and interests.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) Emerging risks linked to AI include threats to human rights and interests, highlighting its rapid emergence in risk assessments.
Big Data Concerns related to big data risks are growing, urging a need for better understanding and management of such technologies.

Issues

name description
Social Fragmentation The growing division within society increases vulnerability to various risks, complicating risk management and public authority response.
Technological Risks The rapid emergence of technological risks, especially in cybersecurity and AI, is complicating decision-making and risk management.
Geopolitical Instability Rising geopolitical tensions with a significant risk of global conflicts poses major societal threats and requires urgent attention.
Aging Population and Workforce Shrinkage Declining fertility rates and rising life expectancy may lead to workforce shortages and strain healthcare systems in the coming decade.
Public Preparedness for Risks Low confidence in public authorities’ preparedness to manage significant risks, affecting trust and response effectiveness.
AI and Human Rights Concerns Emerging risks linked to AI pose threats to human rights and interests, raising concerns among both experts and the general population.