Futures

Future Risks Report 2025: Increasing Global Crises and Emerging Risks Analysis, (from page 20251123.)

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Summary

The Future Risks Report 2025 highlights increasing global crises and emerging risks, as identified by 3,600 experts and 23,000 individuals. Climate change remains the top risk for the fifth consecutive year, with geopolitical instability and cybersecurity following closely behind. The report emphasizes a rise in social fragmentation, impacting society’s resilience and diminishing trust in public authorities to manage these complex challenges. Concerns regarding technological risks, particularly related to AI, are also rising. Additionally, changing demographics pose new risks, including potential healthcare system collapses due to an aging population. The report urges a holistic approach to risk management and acknowledges the pivotal role of the insurance sector in addressing local solutions.

Signals

name description change 10-year driving-force relevancy
Social Fragmentation as a Risk Amplifier Social fragmentation is increasingly viewed as a significant risk factor amplifying global vulnerabilities. Shift from individual risks to understanding collective societal vulnerabilities. In 10 years, societal cohesion may decline, leading to greater community isolation and conflict. Increased crises and loss of trust in public authorities contributing to social fragmentation. 4
Erosion of Trust in Public Authorities Public confidence in authorities’ ability to manage risks like climate change is declining. Declining public trust from a view of competent governance to growing skepticism. In a decade, this erosion may lead to increased civil unrest and demand for alternative governance structures. Recurring failures in crisis management contributing to public distrust. 5
Technological Risks Rising in Public Concern Concerns about AI and technology risks are growing, especially among the general population. Shift from expert-led recognition of tech risks to a more general societal awareness. In 10 years, public perception may lead to stricter regulations on AI and technology. Growing impact of technology on daily life and rising awareness of its shortcomings. 4
Healthcare System Under Strain from Demographics Changing demographics, including an aging population, threaten healthcare sustainability. From stable healthcare systems to potential collapse under demographic pressures. In a decade, healthcare systems could be overwhelmed, leading to widespread service failures. A declining workforce supporting an increasingly elderly population exacerbating healthcare burdens. 5

Concerns

name description
Erosion of Public Confidence Public confidence in authorities’ ability to manage crises is declining, leading to increased vulnerability to emerging risks.
Complexity of Risk Management The rapid emergence of technological risks complicates risk management and decision-making processes for societies.
Geopolitical Tensions and Global Conflict There is a significant risk that geopolitical tensions may escalate into global conflicts or wars, affecting global stability.
Healthcare System Collapse The declining workforce combined with an aging population poses a substantial risk to the sustainability of healthcare systems.
Technological Risks Emerging technological risks, particularly in AI and cybersecurity, threaten human rights and societal stability.
Climate Change Vulnerability The continued vulnerability to climate change is a pressing concern, with low confidence in authorities’ preparedness to address it.
Fragmented Societies Social fragmentation and tensions are exacerbating vulnerabilities to risks, impacting community cohesion and resilience.
Demographic Challenges Changing demographics, including declining fertility rates, may lead to economic challenges and strain on social services.

Behaviors

name description
Increased Awareness of Climate Change Risks Growing recognition of climate change as a top societal risk, highlighted by rising public vulnerability perceptions.
Concerns about Geopolitical Instability A heightened fear of geopolitical tensions escalating into global conflicts, indicating a shift in public sentiment towards security.
Rising Cybersecurity Concerns Increasing apprehension about technological risks, particularly in cybersecurity and AI, as they pose rapid threats to society.
Shifting Demographic Awareness Recognition of risks associated with changing demographics, including workforce challenges linked to declining fertility and aging populations.
Erosion of Trust in Public Authorities Declining confidence in governmental readiness to manage emerging risks, reflecting a possible shift towards local solutions.
Role of Insurers in Risk Management Acknowledgment of the insurance sector’s crucial role in offering solutions to emerging risks at local levels.
Demand for Holistic Risk Management Approaches Increasing call for integrated strategies in risk management to address the polycrisis effectively.
Fragmentation in Societal Cohesion Growing concerns over social fragmentation and its implications for society’s resilience to risks.

Technologies

name description
Cybersecurity Technological risks, particularly cybersecurity, are emerging rapidly, posing significant threats to critical infrastructures and societal stability.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) Concerns about AI-related threats to human rights and interests are rising among both the general population and experts, indicating its emergent risks.
Big Data Risks associated with big data are increasingly recognized, reflecting a growing awareness of its implications for privacy and security.
Digital Risk Management Solutions Innovative digital modules for comparing emerging risks across different demographics are being developed, enhancing decision-making in risk management.

Issues

name description
Social Fragmentation Increasing division within societies is heightening vulnerability to various risks, complicating public risk management.
Geopolitical Instability Growing concerns about tensions that could escalate into global conflicts, impacting international stability.
Technological Risks Rapid emergence of technological risks, particularly cybersecurity and AI-related threats, requires urgent attention.
Changing Demographics Shifting demographic trends, including declining fertility rates and aging populations, pose risks to healthcare systems and labor markets.
Public Trust in Authorities Erosion of confidence in public authorities’ ability to manage emerging risks, signaling a need for reassessment of governance.
Insurance Sector Role The insurance industry is increasingly critical in offering solutions to navigate the complexities of emerging risks.