In this episode, Benjamin Thompson interviews Gaia Vince, author of the book “Nomad Century: How Climate Migration Will Reshape Our World.” They discuss the impact of climate change on human migration and the need for adaptation in the face of extreme conditions. Gaia highlights that large areas of the world will become uninhabitable, necessitating mass migration on a scale never seen before in human history. They explore the drivers of climate-related migration, including extreme heat, drought, flooding, and fire, and the interconnectedness of climate change with poverty, conflict, and food shortages. Gaia emphasizes the importance of preparing for and managing this mass migration, with efforts already underway in countries like Kiribati and Bangladesh. They also discuss the challenges and potential benefits of accepting climate migrants in different cities and nations. Gaia calls for a global approach to managing climate-related migration, with a focus on inclusivity, investment in infrastructure and social support, and countering anti-migrant narratives. They discuss the role of the UN and the need for visionary leadership in addressing this global crisis. Gaia underscores the urgency of taking action now, as the impacts of climate change will affect future generations.
| Signal | Change | 10y horizon | Driving force |
|---|---|---|---|
| Climate-related migration on a large scale | From limited climate-related migration to planned, large-scale migration | Increased movement of people due to extreme heat, drought, flooding, and fire | Climate change and its impact on habitability |
| Need for adaptation to extreme climate conditions | From insufficient focus on adaptation to increased recognition and action on adaptation | Greater emphasis on adapting to extreme climate conditions and the need for migration | Awareness of the need for adaptation and the severity of climate change |
| Large-scale migration as a necessary response to climate change | From potential avoidance of large-scale migration to acceptance of its inevitability | International migration in the tens to hundreds of millions, with estimates of 1.5 billion by 2050 | The need to move in order to survive extreme climate conditions |
| Climate change as a threat multiplier for migration | From single drivers of migration to a combination of factors, including climate change | Migration driven by a combination of climate change, poverty, conflict, harvest failures, food shortages, and energy shortages | The interconnected nature of climate change and other factors leading to migration |
| Shifting habitable zones due to climate change | From current habitability patterns to new habitable zones | Increased habitability in higher latitudes and changing agricultural productivity in certain regions | Changing temperature patterns and the greening of certain areas |
| Scenario planning for migration based on 4°C of warming | From anticipation of lower temperature scenarios to consideration of higher temperature scenarios | Exploring the survivability of a population of 9-10 billion in a 4°C scenario | Addressing the potential impacts of higher temperature scenarios |
| Challenges and barriers to climate-related migration | From limited preparation and resources for migration to improved management and support | Addressing issues of housing, healthcare, education, and inclusion to facilitate safer migration | Recognizing the challenges and needs of climate migrants and providing necessary support |
| Role of nations in supporting climate migrants | From resistance to accepting large numbers of migrants to recognition of the economic benefits | Embracing immigration as a solution to workforce shortages and demographic challenges | Recognizing the economic benefits of immigration and countering anti-migrant narratives |
| Need for global coordination and governance of migration | From fragmented response to coordinated management of migration | Establishing a global body within the UN for managing climate-related migration | Recognizing the need for global cooperation and coordination |
| Importance of interdisciplinary approach to climate-related migration | From narrow focus on specific disciplines to holistic understanding of migration | Incorporating climate science, sociology, anthropology, and economics in understanding migration | Recognizing the multidimensional nature and impacts of climate-related migration |
| Necessity for visionary leadership in addressing climate-related migration | From lack of vision and conflicting interests to strong leadership for action | Leadership with a vision for a sustainable future and global cooperation | Recognizing the urgency and need for decisive action |
| Personal reflections on the future and the impact of climate change | From distant future to recognition of the near-term impact on loved ones | Understanding the implications of climate change for future generations | Concern for the safety and well-being of future generations |