Futures

Innovative Cash Assistance for Farmers in Jamira, Bangladesh Ahead of Floods Using AI, (from page 20251123.)

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Summary

Farmers on Jamira Island, Bangladesh, face challenges due to frequent floods exacerbated by climate change. In a novel approach, the nonprofit GiveDirectly will provide cash payments before predicted floods, utilizing AI to forecast at-risk areas. This method aims to empower farmers by enabling them to act preemptively, such as protecting livestock and securing essential supplies. While similar initiatives in other regions have shown positive outcomes, a trial is planned for 2026 in which households will receive either pre-flood, post-flood, or no cash, alongside flood warnings. Farmers hope that timely cash assistance will help them mitigate disaster impacts. With climate risks escalating in Bangladesh, early warnings and financial support are crucial for farmers’ resilience.

Signals

name description change 10-year driving-force relevancy
Cash Assistance before Disasters Farmers receive cash before floods, allowing for proactive disaster management. Shifting from post-disaster aid to pre-emptive cash transfers to enhance resilience. In 10 years, pre-emptive cash assistance may become a standard practice in disaster-prone areas. The urgency of climate change necessitates innovative approaches to disaster risk management. 4
AI in Flood Forecasting AI technologies are utilized to enhance prediction accuracy of flood events. From traditional forecasting methods to advanced AI models improving prediction capabilities. AI could revolutionize disaster response, leading to reduced losses and more prepared communities. Need for improved accuracy in disaster forecasting due to climate variability. 5
Shift in Humanitarian Aid Delivery Humanitarian aid is evolving from a reactive model to a more proactive approach. Transforming from general flood relief to targeted, anticipatory support for affected families. Humanitarian strategies may rely increasingly on anticipatory funding models to reduce disaster impact. Integrating technology with humanitarian efforts to optimize resource allocation. 4
Unpredictable Weather Patterns Changes in the monsoon season and flooding patterns affecting farmers’ planning. From predictable seasonal patterns to erratic weather leading to crop uncertainties. Increased unpredictability could lead to shifts in farming practices and crop resilience strategies. Climate change is intensifying the frequency and unpredictability of extreme weather events. 5
Increased Investment in Livelihood Diversification Farmers are motivated to diversify income sources in response to flood risks. Transitioning from reliance on traditional farming to exploring alternative income-generating activities. Livelihood diversification could lead to more resilient rural economies against climatic impacts. Risk management strategies push farmers to seek alternative income sources in face of uncertainties. 4

Concerns

name description
Flood-related Economic Instability The increasing unpredictability of flooding due to climate change may lead to severe economic hardship for farmers.
Inequity in Aid Distribution The reliance on forecast data may create disparities in aid effectiveness, leaving some vulnerable populations without timely assistance.
Dependence on Technology and AI Overreliance on AI for flood forecasting could lead to issues if the technology fails or provides inaccurate predictions.
Debt Burden on Farmers Rising debts due to erratic weather patterns could severely impact farmers’ ability to sustain their livelihoods and recover from disasters.
Impact of Climate Change on Traditional Farming Practices Disruption of traditional farming patterns may lead to loss of crops and increased food insecurity.
Challenges in Implementation of Cash Transfers The process of administering cash transfers before disasters may face logistical challenges and resistance from local communities.
Limited Access to Technology in Rural Areas Farmers in unelectrified or poorly connected regions may not benefit fully from AI technologies and timely forecasts.
Need for Scientific Validation of Aid Effectiveness Insufficient evidence on the effectiveness of early cash aid may hinder future implementations of such programs.

Behaviors

name description
Proactive Disaster Preparedness Farmers receive cash payments and warnings before flooding, allowing them to prepare and mitigate disaster impacts on their livelihoods.
AI-Driven Humanitarian Aid Utilization of AI for flood forecasting enables targeted, timely assistance to vulnerable communities, shifting traditional aid models.
Unrestricted Cash Transfers Providing unconditional cash aid allows recipients to strategically invest according to their unique needs and circumstances.
Community-Based Information Sharing Farmers rely on neighbors and informal networks for flood warnings, emphasizing the importance of community communication in disaster response.
Adaptive Farming Strategies Farmers adjust planting and purchasing decisions based on unpredictable weather patterns, indicating shifts in agricultural practices due to climate change.
Investment in Resilience Building Farmers express intentions to use early cash transfers for livestock and infrastructure improvements, highlighting proactive resilience efforts.
Integration of Technology with Traditional Knowledge Farmers blend AI forecasts with traditional flood prediction methods, showing adaptability and reliance on both modern technology and local knowledge.

Technologies

name description
AI-based Flood Forecasting Utilizes artificial intelligence to predict flood risks by analyzing historical and current data, offering advanced warning to affected villages.
Unconditional Cash Transfers Financial aid provided without restrictions, allowing beneficiaries to use the funds as they see fit, intended to empower vulnerable populations before disasters.
Google’s Flood Hub An AI-powered platform that predicts floods five days in advance, utilizing machine learning and meteorological data for improved forecasting.
Integration of Socioeconomic Data with Flood Predictions Combines flood forecasting with data on wealth and infrastructure to target assistance effectively, enhancing disaster preparedness.

Issues

name description
Preemptive Humanitarian Aid Shift from post-disaster aid to preemptive cash assistance using AI-driven forecasts, potentially transforming disaster response strategies.
AI in Disaster Preparedness Emerging use of AI for forecasting floods, improving response time and resource allocation for at-risk communities.
Economic Impact of Climate Change on Farming Agricultural productivity is increasingly affected by climate change, leading to financial instability for farmers.
Unconditional Cash Transfers for Disaster Resilience Unconditional cash transfers could allow vulnerable populations to make timely investments in resilience against disasters.
Integration of Technology in Rural Areas Challenges faced by rural communities in adopting technological solutions for disaster risk management and communication.
Increasing Frequency of Climate-Related Disasters Climate change is leading to more intense and unpredictable weather patterns, exacerbating risks for vulnerable populations.
Community-Based Disaster Risk Management The need for more inclusive and community-driven approaches to disaster preparedness and mitigation strategies.