Futures

Exploring the Rise of Splinternet and AI Divisions in a New Cold War, (from page 20250209.)

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Summary

The newsletter update by David Mattin discusses the implications of TikTok’s ban in the US, linking it to concerns over Chinese influence and intelligence control. The ban reflects a growing divide between the Global North and China, marking the emergence of a ‘splinternet’ and a new cold war in technology. This division highlights a geopolitical struggle for dominance in AI and chip manufacturing, especially with US reliance on Taiwan for AI chips. Mattin argues that rather than unifying the world, digital technology is fostering cultural and informational divisions, leading to two distinct systems of intelligence. He emphasizes the need for diverse AI reflections from different regions to avoid a homogenized and brittle intelligence monoculture, cautioning against the potential for conflict in this new technological landscape.

Signals

name description change 10-year driving-force relevancy
Rise of the Splinternet Emergence of two distinct internets: Global North vs China, reflecting cultural and technological divisions. Shift from a unified global internet to two separate systems of information and culture. In 10 years, we may see a fully bifurcated internet experience with distinct cultural narratives. Geopolitical tensions and technological competition driving the need for separate digital ecosystems. 5
Decoupling of AI Resources US and China are creating separate AI ecosystems, limiting access to advanced technologies. Transition from shared global AI resources to isolated national AI systems. A decade from now, AI innovations may be heavily influenced by national ideologies and policies. National security concerns and competition for technological supremacy. 4
Cultural Division through Technology Technological advancements are reinforcing cultural divisions rather than unifying societies. Evolution from a belief in a unified digital culture to a reality of cultural fragmentation. In 10 years, cultural narratives will be shaped by distinct technological ecosystems. The realization that technology can both connect and divide societies. 4
Intel’s Strategic Importance Intel is seen as crucial for US dominance in AI and chip manufacturing amidst geopolitical tensions. Shift from reliance on foreign chip manufacturers to domestic production capabilities. In 10 years, the US may significantly enhance its tech sovereignty through domestic manufacturing. The need for technological self-sufficiency in the face of potential threats. 5
Emergence of AI Monocultures Concerns over the dominance of singular AI mindsets affecting societal diversity. From diverse AI applications to potential over-optimization of a single cultural perspective. In a decade, societies may struggle with the implications of AI that lacks diverse viewpoints. The drive for efficiency in AI development may lead to cultural homogenization. 4

Concerns

name description relevancy
Digital Bifurcation The emergence of two opposing internet systems (Global North vs. China) could foster cultural division and misinformation. 5
Competitive AI Development The race to develop AI technologies could lead to rival systems of intelligence with conflicting values and agendas. 4
Geopolitical Tensions and Conflict The growing technological tensions between the US and China may escalate into a new Cold War, threatening global stability. 5
Monopolization of Technology The risk of AI and technology being dominated by a single mindset, leading to a lack of diversity and resilience in intelligence. 4
Surveillance and Control Rapid advancements in surveillance technologies could undermine personal freedoms and privacy on a global scale. 5
Social Fragmentation The splinternet might lead to fragmented societies that struggle to communicate, collaborate, and solve global issues effectively. 4

Behaviors

name description relevancy
Cultural and Informational Division The emergence of two distinct cultural and informational systems due to geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and China. 5
Technological Decoupling The growing separation of technological ecosystems, leading to different standards and systems between regions, especially in AI and chip manufacturing. 5
Rise of AI Monocultures The risk of creating AIs that echo dominant cultural values, leading to a lack of diversity in intelligence systems across global regions. 4
Emergence of Competing Intelligence Kingdoms The development of two rival systems of intelligence and AI, each aiming to advance while undermining the other. 5
Global Competition for Technological Supremacy The intensifying rivalry between global powers to dominate emerging technologies like AI and semiconductors. 5
Shift in Policy Towards Onshoring A trend towards domestic production and self-reliance in technology, driven by geopolitical concerns. 4
Diverse Intelligence Systems The potential for multiple AI systems reflecting varied cultural values and philosophies, rather than a single dominant perspective. 4

Technologies

description relevancy src
A push for domestic production of AI chips to reduce reliance on foreign technology, particularly from Taiwan and China. 5 cb6a044f0f6af49e2a49d5cdc5ddcd19
The division of the internet into separate networks based on geopolitical lines, particularly between the Global North and China. 5 cb6a044f0f6af49e2a49d5cdc5ddcd19
Development of AI systems within China that align with the CCP’s ideology, in contrast to Western AI systems. 4 cb6a044f0f6af49e2a49d5cdc5ddcd19
The rise of military applications of drone technology for surveillance and combat. 4 cb6a044f0f6af49e2a49d5cdc5ddcd19
Advanced surveillance technologies that monitor the lives of ordinary people, raising privacy concerns. 4 cb6a044f0f6af49e2a49d5cdc5ddcd19

Issues

name description relevancy
Geopolitical Tensions in Technology The US and China are entering a new Cold War over technological supremacy, particularly in AI and chip manufacturing. 5
Splinternet Development The division of the internet into two opposing systems, one led by the US and the other by China, is becoming increasingly pronounced. 5
AI and Cultural Division AI technologies are shaping cultural narratives, leading to diverging worldviews between the Global North and China. 4
Technological Decoupling The separation of technological ecosystems between competing global powers, impacting innovation and collaboration. 4
Intelligence Monocultures The risk of overoptimized intelligence systems that lack diversity and adaptability in response to global challenges. 4
Emerging AI Regulations As AI technologies develop, conflicting regulations and access restrictions are likely to emerge between the US and China. 3
Surveillance and Privacy Concerns The advancement of surveillance technologies poses risks to privacy and civil liberties in both competing systems. 4
Impact of AI on Thought and Culture AI will influence societal norms and cognitive frameworks, potentially limiting diverse perspectives. 4