Professor Brian David Johnson uses science fiction prototyping as a tool to model and assess future threats. Science fiction prototyping is a way to imagine potential futures and discover previously unseen threats. It involves using short science fiction stories to bring these futures to life and push people to think differently. Johnson has used this technique to threatcast dark futures based on Intel’s technologies, which has sometimes upset his colleagues. Military institutions and organizations hire comic book writers and sci-fi authors because sci-fi prototyping can effectively communicate complex technological concepts and their effects. Sci-fi prototyping is different from other futurist methods like scenario planning because it captures the complexity and human element of future issues. Although science fiction often critiques abuses of power and warns of dark futures, sci-fi prototyping can also be used to explore all the things that could go wrong and provoke conversations about prevention and action. The goal is to make the world better and safer by envisioning and preparing for potential future scenarios.
| Signal | Change | 10y horizon | Driving force |
|---|---|---|---|
| Science fiction prototyping | Use of science fiction as a futures modelling tool | More widespread use in organizations for threat discovery | Need to discover potential futures and threats |
| Threatcasting | Modelling future threats and necessary steps to avoid them | More accurate and actionable threat models | Necessity to anticipate and mitigate threats |
| Imagination-driven futures | Using characters and situations to bring future scenarios to life | More creativity and imagination in envisioning futures | Desire to explore possibilities beyond the abstract |
| Sci-fi prototypes as communication tools | Using comic books and stories to provoke conversations and create a common language | Enhanced understanding and dialogue about the future | Need for imaginative and fact-based discussions |
| Shift towards sci-fi prototyping | Moving from traditional futurist methods to sci-fi prototyping | Increased acceptance and reliance on sci-fi for future planning | Recognition of its practicality and repeatability |
| Complexity and human-centric focus | Capturing the complexity and human element in future scenarios | More comprehensive and realistic future models | Desire for detailed and relatable futures |
| Cautionary tales and exploration of risks | Using sci-fi prototyping to explore potential dark futures | Heightened awareness and prevention of negative outcomes | Need to examine and address potential risks |
| Empowerment through action | Using sci-fi prototyping to provoke action and preventive measures | More proactive approach towards future challenges | Goal of making the world better and safer |