Futures

Exploring Future Threats Through Science Fiction Prototyping with Brian David Johnson, (from page 20220904.)

External link

Keywords

Themes

Other

Summary

Professor Brian David Johnson, a futurist at Arizona State University, discusses ‘science fiction prototyping,’ a method using sci-fi narratives to model potential future threats. Unlike traditional sci-fi, this approach aims to engage organizations in exploring unseen dangers through imaginative storytelling. Johnson explains how he employs ‘threatcasting’ to visualize dark futures based on technologies, provoking discussions and a deeper understanding of the implications of such threats. His work, including projects for military institutions, illustrates the effectiveness of using comic books and graphic novels to convey complex ideas. Johnson argues that this method is superior to scenario planning as it captures human complexity and encourages proactive strategies for addressing potential issues. Ultimately, the goal is to empower action and foster safer futures by contemplating the darker possibilities.

Signals

name description change 10-year driving-force relevancy
Science Fiction Prototyping Using sci-fi narratives to model potential future threats and scenarios. Shift from traditional scenario planning to a more imaginative and detailed modeling approach. Widespread adoption of sci-fi prototyping in strategic planning across various sectors. Need for organizations to anticipate and prepare for complex future threats innovatively. 5
Threatcasting Methodology A method to foresee and analyze potential future threats systematically. Transition from abstract future scenarios to more tangible, relatable narratives. Enhanced preparedness and proactive measures against emerging threats through narrative-driven planning. Growing complexity of global challenges requiring innovative foresight strategies. 4
Integration of Comic Book Writers Hiring comic book writers to communicate complex future threats. Move towards more engaging and relatable mediums for serious topics like security. Increased collaboration between creatives and technologists for effective communication of risks. Desire to make complex information accessible and engaging to broader audiences. 3
Cautionary Tales in Sci-Fi Utilizing science fiction to warn against potential future abuses of power. Shift from entertainment-focused to cautionary narratives influencing policy and technology. A culture of critical engagement with technology fostering ethical considerations in development. Rising awareness of technology’s implications on society and governance. 4
Quantum Technology in Warfare Exploration of quantum technologies’ potential impacts in military contexts. Shift in military strategies and preparations due to emerging quantum capabilities. Transformative advancements in warfare and defense strategies influenced by quantum technology. Rapid development in quantum computing necessitating new military considerations. 4

Concerns

name description relevancy
Cybersecurity Vulnerabilities Exploration of how cyber-attacks can exploit vulnerabilities in technology systems, potentially leading to large-scale disasters. 5
Impact of Quantum Technologies Potential misuse of quantum computing in warfare and cybersecurity, leading to critical failures in military operations. 5
Technological Abuse Concerns over how beloved technologies can be weaponized or used for harm, affecting public safety and trust. 4
Environmental Security Risks Linking global security and climate resources may lead to competition and conflict over dwindling resources. 4
Scenario Planning Limitations Traditional scenario planning may not effectively capture complex future threats, necessitating new methodologies like sci-fi prototyping. 4
Social Impacts of Automation Risks associated with autonomous systems failing during critical moments, affecting human safety. 4
Emerging Threats from Supply Chains Supply chain weaknesses being exploited by cyber threats or terrorism, posing risks to national security. 4
Cautionary Tales of Technology Science fiction often reflects potential futures gone wrong, urging against technological overreach or negligence. 4

Behaviors

name description relevancy
Science Fiction Prototyping Using science fiction narratives as a tool for modeling potential futures and identifying unseen threats. 5
Threatcasting Analyzing a range of potential future threats and determining proactive measures to avoid them. 5
Innovation Sandboxing Using speculative scenarios to explore and challenge existing narratives within institutions, often revealing risks. 4
Human-Centric Futures Modeling Focusing on the emotional and experiential aspects of future scenarios, emphasizing human impact and behavior. 4
Collaborative Futures Thinking Engaging diverse stakeholders in imaginative discussions about future possibilities to foster strategic planning. 4
Narrative-Based Risk Assessment Employing storytelling to illustrate complex risks and provoke discussions on mitigation strategies. 5

Technologies

name description relevancy
Science Fiction Prototyping A methodology using science fiction narratives to model and explore potential future threats and scenarios. 5
Threatcasting A technique for forecasting potential future threats and assessing necessary actions to avoid them. 4
Quantum Technologies Advanced technologies based on quantum mechanics, with potential applications in computing and warfare. 5
Cybersecurity Prototyping Using narrative-driven approaches to predict and mitigate cybersecurity threats in real-world scenarios. 4

Issues

name description relevancy
Use of Sci-Fi Prototyping in Threat Modeling Organizations increasingly use sci-fi prototyping to visualize and address potential future threats, enhancing strategic planning and innovation. 5
Impact of Quantum Technologies on Warfare The potential implications of quantum technologies in military applications raise concerns about national security and the future of warfare. 4
Cultural Shift in Futurism There’s a growing acceptance of science fiction as a legitimate tool for futures thinking, moving beyond traditional futurist methods. 4
Cybersecurity Vulnerabilities in Supply Chains Emerging threats related to cyber-attacks on global supply chains highlight the need for enhanced security measures. 5
Real-World Implications of Technological Advancements The gap between advanced technologies and their societal impacts necessitates discussions about ethical use and potential harms. 5
Integration of Emotional and Human Factors in Futurism Recognizing the importance of human experiences and emotions in modeling future scenarios to create more relatable narratives. 3
Subversive Nature of Science Fiction The dual role of science fiction as both a cautionary tale and a tool for institutional innovation presents ethical dilemmas. 4