The article discusses the impact of AI-driven automation on the future of work, particularly on white-collar workers. It highlights the use of large language models (LLMs) such as OpenAI’s GPT-4 and ChatGPT in generating high-quality content. The author shares a personal experience of showing an editor the capabilities of ChatGPT, which led to concerns about potential unemployment. The article mentions the impressive performance of GPT-4 on various standardized tests and the shift in the perception that higher-paid and creative jobs are now more susceptible to automation. It references studies that challenge the previous predictions about the impact of automation on lower-wage jobs. The author concludes by emphasizing the unique vulnerability of white-collar workers and the need to expect a different outcome in this wave of automation.
| Signal | Change | 10y horizon | Driving force |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rise of AI language models | Automation of higher-paid and creative jobs | Higher unemployment rates among white-collar workers | Advancement in AI technology |
| Change in job vulnerability | White-collar workers becoming uniquely vulnerable to automation | Disruption in the job market and increased job insecurity | Advancements in AI technology |
| Shift in job impact | Automation affecting higher-paid and creative jobs more | Changes in job distribution and economic inequality | Advancements in AI technology |
| Emotional impact on workers | Being rendered useless by AI has emotional effects, especially for men | Emotional distress and potential mental health implications | Impact of job loss on self-worth and identity |