Futures

Increasing Threats to German Infrastructure: Drones, Cyberattacks, and Sabotage, (from page 20251102.)

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Summary

Germany is facing an increase in attacks on its critical infrastructure, with frequent drone sightings, cyberattacks, and arson targeting airports and rail services. A cyberattack on security software disrupted operations at major hubs like Berlin Airport, while Deutsche Bahn reported ongoing sabotage incidents, prompting concerns of high-level crime syndicate involvement, particularly linked to Russia and China. Security experts warn these attacks aim to destabilize public trust in institutions and signal a serious threat level, with rising fears among Germans over hybrid attacks. The government is urged to take decisive action, including potential state of emergency measures, as investigations reveal both mercenary involvement and possible left-wing extremist sabotage. Amidst this turmoil, experts emphasize the need for transparent communication regarding threats and better defense mechanisms for critical infrastructure.

Signals

name description change 10-year driving-force relevancy
Increased attacks on infrastructure Critical infrastructure in Germany is experiencing almost daily attacks via drones and cybercrime. Germany is moving from relative security to a situation of frequent and severe infrastructure attacks. In 10 years, critical infrastructure may be heavily fortified and privatized with increased military involvement. Rising geopolitical tensions, particularly with state actors like Russia, are driving these attacks. 5
Use of drones in attacks Drones are being utilized for reconnaissance and armed attacks on public and critical infrastructure. The reliance on traditional security measures is being challenged by drone technology for both surveillance and attack. In a decade, drones may be a common tool in both state and non-state actors for infrastructure attacks. Advancements in drone technology and access to such equipment by various actors are pushing this change. 4
Public fear of hybrid attacks A significant majority of Germans are afraid of hybrid warfare, suggesting a noticeable societal concern. The public sentiment is shifting from complacency to a heightened awareness of security threats and vulnerabilities. In 10 years, public preparedness and resilience strategies may be significantly more developed due to this fear. Increasing visibility of cyber and hybrid attacks is fostering a culture of fear regarding national security. 4
Shift to privatization of security measures There is a growing conversation about private operators being responsible for national security measures. A shift is occurring from government-managed security initiatives to reliance on private sector capabilities. In 10 years, we may see a mixed model of public-private partnerships for cybersecurity and physical security. Government recognition of its limitations has led to the exploration of private sector for expertise and resources. 4
Emergence of low-level mercenary actors Allegations of mercenary actors being hired for cyber and physical attacks suggest an evolving criminal landscape. The criminal landscape is evolving from orchestrated state attacks to involving mercenaries for covert operations. In a decade, focusing on individual mercenaries may become a significant national security challenge for states. Profit incentives and reduced barriers for engagement in cybercrime are driving this shift. 4

Concerns

name description
Frequent Attacks on Critical Infrastructure Almost daily attacks on critical infrastructure are destabilizing society and eroding public trust in institutions and government.
Cybercrime and Economic Cost Cyberattacks are increasingly common, costing the German economy billions and raising concerns about security preparedness.
State-Sponsored Sabotage There’s a rising suspicion of state actors like Russia behind physical and cyber sabotage aimed at destabilizing Germany.
Hybrid Attacks on Society Growing fear of hybrid attacks that combine physical and cyber elements, primarily attributed to Russia.
Inadequate Security Measures Germany’s lag in digital infrastructure and security preparedness increases vulnerability to sophisticated attacks.
Public Fear and Perception of Vulnerability Widespread fear among the German public regarding government preparedness to defend against hybrid attacks.
Use of Mercenary Actors Allegations of mercenaries being hired for attacks raises concerns about accountability and state responsibility.
Internal Political Polarization Blame placed on various factions for sabotage shows growing political polarization during security crises.

Behaviors

name description
Increased Public Concern Over Security Threats A significant rise in public anxiety related to hybrid attacks and infrastructure security, reflecting a loss of trust in institutions and government efficacy.
Escalation of Cyber and Physical Attacks A notable increase in the frequency and sophistication of cyberattacks and physical sabotage against critical infrastructure, particularly in Germany.
Call for Government Accountability Growing public demand for transparency and accountability from the government regarding security threats and responses to attacks.
Political Blame on Foreign Actors Heightened accusations against foreign states, particularly Russia and China, for orchestrating security threats against national infrastructure.
Emerging Market for Security Services A potential rise in private security services and mercenary operations conducting cyber and physical attacks for governments, reflecting a shift in traditional security roles.
Radicalization of Left-Wing Extremism The emergence of left-wing extremist groups taking responsibility for attacks, indicating a shift in motivations and targets of leftist movements.
Demand for Military Preparedness Increased advocacy for reactivating military measures and preparedness in response to escalating security threats, indicating a shift in defense policy discussions.

Technologies

name description
Drones Unmanned aerial vehicles increasingly used for reconnaissance and armed operations, raising security concerns.
Cybersecurity Technologies Advanced security systems and software to protect critical infrastructure and government institutions from cyberattacks.
Digital Infrastructure Improving and modernizing digital systems in governmental and transportation sectors to prevent vulnerabilities.
Hybrid Warfare Techniques Combining conventional and unconventional methods (like cybercrime and sabotage) in warfare, highlighting the need for modern defense measures.
AI in Security Surveillance Artificial intelligence systems for monitoring and threat detection in infrastructure and public spaces.

Issues

name description
Increased Frequency of Cyberattacks Daily cyberattacks on critical infrastructure and private companies are rising, posing economic and safety risks.
State-sponsored Drone Incursions Drones are increasingly used in attacks on infrastructure, suggesting heightened involvement of state actors like Russia in hybrid warfare.
Debate Over Military Readiness Concerns over Germany’s defense capabilities against sophisticated cyber threats are driving calls for military readiness and possible state of emergency measures.
Public Fear of Hybrid Attacks A significant portion of the German population fears hybrid attacks from foreign entities, indicating potential for political unrest or calls for policy changes.
Civilian Vulnerability to Sabotage Recent sabotage incidents targeting rail services highlight the vulnerability of civilian infrastructure to both domestic and foreign threats.
Extremist Violence and Sabotage Allegations of left-wing extremism contributing to sabotage of critical infrastructure raises concerns about internal security and violence.