The article discusses the ownership and control of AI by Big Tech companies like Microsoft and Amazon. It highlights the dependency of startups and research labs on these tech giants for computing infrastructure and market reach. The article argues that this concentration of power in the AI industry is a problem for democracy, culture, and individual and collective agency. It also emphasizes the security risks and systemic risks posed by relying on a small number of AI models and actors. The authors call for regulation and accountability measures to address these issues and ensure that the interests of the public are prioritized over the profits of big firms.
| Signal | Change | 10y horizon | Driving force |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI ownership by Big Tech | Concentration of power in AI market | Continued dominance and control by large tech companies | Profits, surveillance business model, platform dominance |
| Dependence on Big Tech for AI development | Lack of alternatives for companies | Limited options for startups and new entrants | Computing infrastructure, market reach of Microsoft, Amazon, and Google |
| Lack of clear business model outside of Big Tech | Limited revenue streams in AI industry | Continued focus on bundling AI services with cloud infrastructure | Cost of training and developing AI systems |
| Need for regulation and accountability | Call for stronger accountability regime | Greater transparency and liability requirements for AI companies | Public interest, privacy, security, and bias concerns, concentration of power in market |
| Tech industry giants asserting dominance | Aggressive actions to maintain control | Wielding economic and political power to secure dominance | Economic and political interests, regulatory landscape |
| Google DeepMind’s use of language model in math | AI solving math problems | Potential for AI to contribute to solving complex problems | Advancements in language models and AI capabilities |
| Mass adoption of generative AI | Resetting the course of the industry | Increased use and integration of generative AI tools | Adoption and effectiveness of generative AI technologies |
| Google DeepMind’s Gemini model | Incremental AI advancements | Marginal improvements in AI capabilities | Push for incremental improvements in AI technology |
| Future trends in AI | Evolution of AI industry | Emergence of new trends and advancements in AI | Technological advancements and market demands |