The global economy prioritizes growth, which exacerbates climate change and ecological degradation, largely driven by high-income nations. The COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions have led to economic stagnation, prompting calls for a degrowth approach. This entails reducing unnecessary production, enhancing public services, and transitioning to sustainable practices aimed at human well-being rather than GDP growth. Policies proposed include job guarantees, reduced working hours, and sustainable development strategies for low-income countries. While some nations have begun implementing degrowth principles, challenges such as growth dependencies, funding public services, and managing reduced working hours remain. The political landscape is shifting, with increasing public support for degrowth policies, highlighting the need for research and governmental action to facilitate a transition towards a sustainable, equitable economy without reliance on continuous growth.
| name | description | change | 10-year | driving-force | relevancy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emergence of Degrowth Movement | The rise of degrowth as a strategy in wealthy economies to prioritize well-being over GDP growth. | Shift from growth-centric economic models to degrowth-focused policies that prioritize human needs and ecological sustainability. | In 10 years, degrowth might reshape economic policies, focusing more on quality of life than GDP metrics. | The increasing awareness of climate change and ecological degradation is pushing societies to reconsider growth as a goal. | 5 |
| Public Demand for Well-Being over Growth | Growing public support in Europe and elsewhere for policies prioritizing social and ecological objectives over mere economic growth. | Transition from growth-centric policies to those emphasizing social welfare and environmental sustainability. | In a decade, public policy may increasingly reflect well-being priorities, leading to more equitable and sustainable societies. | Shifting public attitudes towards valuing quality of life and environmental health over traditional economic growth. | 4 |
| Political Feasibility of Degrowth Ideas | Degrowth policies are gaining traction despite limited electoral support, indicating a potential political shift. | Political landscape may evolve to support degrowth policies as public priorities shift towards sustainability. | In 10 years, political parties may align more with degrowth principles, reflecting changing voter preferences and values. | The rise of social movements advocating for degrowth and sustainable practices is influencing political discourse. | 4 |
| Shift in Economic Models | Development of new macro-economic models that integrate social, ecological, and financial variables for a degrowth framework. | From traditional GDP-focused models to integrative frameworks that consider ecological limits and social equity. | In a decade, economic models might universally incorporate sustainability metrics alongside traditional financial indicators. | The imperative of addressing climate change and social inequalities is driving innovation in economic modeling. | 5 |
| Adoption of Shorter Working Hours | Trials of reduced working hours show positive outcomes, indicating a potential shift in work culture. | Change from standard long working hours to reduced hours promoting work-life balance and lower emissions. | In 10 years, shorter working hours may become standard practice, enhancing well-being and reducing environmental impact. | The need for better work-life balance and reduced carbon footprints is motivating changes in working hours. | 4 |
| Universal Basic Services Movement | Push for universal access to essential services like healthcare, education, and public transportation as part of degrowth strategy. | Shift from market-driven access to essential services towards universal provision for all citizens. | In a decade, many nations may implement universal basic services, enhancing social equity and well-being. | Growing recognition of the need for equitable access to essential services is shaping policy discussions. | 5 |
| Rethinking Financing for Public Services | Exploration of innovative financing mechanisms for public services without reliance on economic growth. | From growth-dependent funding models to sustainable financing strategies for public services and social programs. | In 10 years, public services may be funded through sustainable models that do not rely on continuous economic growth. | The need to address resource limits and ensure equitable social services is driving financial innovation in public sectors. | 4 |
| Social Movements for Degrowth | Emergence of social movements advocating for degrowth principles and sustainable living practices. | Shift from individualistic growth-oriented cultures to collective movements emphasizing sustainability and equity. | In a decade, social movements may significantly influence policy and societal norms towards sustainable practices. | Increased awareness of social and ecological crises is fostering grassroots movements for change. | 5 |
| Political Resistance to Growth | Recognition of the political challenges in promoting degrowth policies against entrenched growth ideologies. | From unchallenged growth narratives to a critical examination of growth’s impact on society and the environment. | In 10 years, political discourse may increasingly challenge growth as an indicator of success, leading to new benchmarks. | The urgent need to address climate change and social inequalities is prompting critical discussions on growth dependency. | 4 |
| Focus on Sustainable Development Goals | A renewed emphasis on meeting Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) through degrowth strategies. | Transition from neglecting SDGs under growth pressures to prioritizing them through sustainable economic practices. | In a decade, many nations might align their policies with SDGs, fostering sustainability and equity initiatives. | The global commitment to achieving SDGs is motivating countries to rethink their economic models and priorities. | 5 |
| name | description | relevancy |
|---|---|---|
| Climate Change and Ecological Breakdown | The current growth-centric economic model accelerates climate change and ecological degradation, posing severe risks to the environment and human survival. | 5 |
| Economic Stagnation | High-income countries face challenges sustaining economic growth, risking increased inequality and social instability as traditional models fail to deliver benefits. | 4 |
| Dependence on Growth for Welfare | Welfare systems heavily reliant on continuous economic growth may collapse, leading to inadequate social services and increased hardship. | 4 |
| Market Instability from Low Growth | International capital movement reactions to low growth could destabilize currencies, potentially leading to economic crises similar to past events. | 4 |
| Public Resistance to Degrowth Policies | Political and public opposition to degrowth strategies might hinder necessary transformations despite public interest in sustainability and well-being. | 4 |
| Inequitable Resource Distribution | Unequal access to resources between high-income and low/middle-income countries could exacerbate global disparities, hindering sustainable development efforts. | 4 |
| Inflationary Risks | Transitioning to a degrowth economy may lead to inflation if demand exceeds production capacity, complicating economic stability. | 3 |
| Restrictive Policies Against Environmental Goals | Existing political interests and economic structures may oppose the shift towards degrowth, leading to a lack of necessary policy changes. | 4 |
| Sustainability in Housing and Provisioning | Current systems fail to sustainably meet basic needs, risking increased inequality and environmental degradation while transition options remain unexplored. | 5 |
| name | description | relevancy |
|---|---|---|
| Degrowth Adoption | The shift from growth-centric policies to degrowth strategies aiming for ecological sustainability and human well-being. | 5 |
| Universal Public Services | A focus on improving access to essential services like healthcare, education, and housing without high resource use. | 4 |
| Green Jobs Guarantee | Training and mobilizing labor for jobs that support social and ecological objectives, transitioning away from fossil fuel dependency. | 5 |
| Reduced Working Hours | Implementing policies for shorter work weeks or retirement ages to promote well-being and reduce carbon emissions. | 4 |
| Sustainable Development Focus | Reorienting economic frameworks to prioritize social objectives and sustainable resource use, especially in low-income countries. | 4 |
| Changing Economic Dependencies | Addressing the reliance on growth for funding welfare and investment, shifting to social and environmental priorities. | 5 |
| Political and Social Movement Support | Emerging movements advocating for degrowth and alternative economic models, influencing political discourse and policies. | 5 |
| Research on Provisioning Systems | Studying how provisioning systems can sustainably meet social needs while using fewer resources. | 4 |
| Public Attitude Shift | A growing public preference for well-being and ecological outcomes over traditional growth metrics like GDP. | 5 |
| Cooperative Economic Models | Exploration of cooperative and communal economic structures as alternatives to growth-focused economies. | 4 |
| name | description | relevancy |
|---|---|---|
| Degrowth | A purposeful strategy to stabilize economies by reducing unnecessary production while improving human well-being and ecological outcomes. | 5 |
| Universal Public Services | Accessible high-quality healthcare, education, and housing that minimizes resource use while enhancing social outcomes. | 4 |
| Green Jobs Guarantee | A program to train labor for urgent social and ecological tasks, promoting employment in sustainable sectors. | 4 |
| Shorter Working Hours | Policies encouraging reduced working hours to lower carbon emissions and improve quality of life. | 4 |
| Sustainable Provisioning Systems | Systems designed to meet basic needs sustainably while minimizing resource use and enhancing social equity. | 4 |
| Innovative Monetary Policy Mechanisms | New approaches to monetary policy, such as tiered reserve systems, to fund social and ecological objectives. | 3 |
| Decentralized Decision-Making | Small-scale, direct forms of governance, like citizens’ assemblies, to promote equitable economic views. | 3 |
| name | description | relevancy |
|---|---|---|
| Degrowth Movement | A shift from GDP growth as a primary goal towards prioritizing human well-being and ecological sustainability. | 5 |
| Economic Dependency on Growth | The challenges posed by economies’ reliance on continuous growth, impacting welfare funding and investment dynamics. | 5 |
| Green Jobs Guarantee | The need for job creation in sectors focused on social and ecological objectives, promoting a just transition for workers. | 4 |
| Universal Public Services | The push for equitable access to essential services without a reliance on economic growth. | 4 |
| Working Time Reduction | Exploration of reduced working hours as a means to lower emissions and improve well-being. | 4 |
| Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Reassessment | The necessity of realigning SDGs with degrowth principles to ensure equitable resource distribution. | 4 |
| Cross-Border Economic Dynamics | The need for research on international capital flows and their impact on national economies during low-growth conditions. | 3 |
| Political Resistance to Degrowth Policies | Identifying the political and economic interests opposing degrowth initiatives amidst changing public attitudes. | 4 |
| Innovative Financing for Public Services | Exploring new funding mechanisms for public services that do not rely on GDP growth. | 4 |
| Social Movements for Change | The role of grassroots movements in catalyzing political transformation towards degrowth. | 4 |