Fresh off the release of GPT-4, a team of Microsoft AI scientists published a research paper on the OpenAI language model. They claim that GPT-4 shows “sparks” of artificial general intelligence (AGI), marking a step towards increasingly generally intelligent systems. The paper emphasizes that GPT-4 is still in the early stages of development and not a fully-hatched, human-level AI. However, the researchers argue that GPT-4 demonstrates more general intelligence than previous AI models, showcasing its capabilities in various tasks ranging from mathematics to medicine. While GPT-4 has its flaws, it has shown significant improvements over its predecessor, GPT-3.5. The researchers believe that GPT-4 represents a true paradigm shift in the field of computer science and beyond.
| Signal | Change | 10y horizon | Driving force |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-4 shows “sparks” of human-level intelligence | Progress towards Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) | More advanced and capable AI systems | Development of AGI and potential for technological advancements |
| GPT-4 demonstrates improved skills and capabilities | Advancement in AI capabilities | AI models with broader and more generalized intelligence | Desire for AI systems to perform a wide range of tasks effectively |
| GPT-4 excels in test-taking and non-linguistic capabilities | Improvement in specific AI tasks and capabilities | AI models with enhanced test-taking and non-linguistic skills | Need for AI systems to perform well in various domains |
| GPT-4 represents a paradigm shift in computer science | Shift in the field of computer science and beyond | Increased exploration and understanding of AGI | Advancement and innovation in computer science |
| Microsoft researchers may have a vested interest in promoting OpenAI’s work | Potential bias and influence in AI research | Collaboration and partnership between Microsoft and OpenAI | Mutual benefit and investment in AI development |
| AGI and intelligence lack clear definitions | Lack of consensus in AGI and intelligence definitions | Evolving and diverse understandings of AGI and intelligence | Need for clearer and agreed-upon definitions in the field |