VUCA stands for volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity, and it describes the general conditions and situations that organizations face. It was initially introduced by the U.S. Army War College in 1987 to describe the complex multilateral world after the Cold War. The VUCA framework emphasizes strategic foresight, insight, and behavior in organizations. It helps organizations interpret their challenges and opportunities, highlighting both systemic and behavioral failures. The framework shapes an organization’s ability to anticipate issues, understand their impact, appreciate complexity, prepare for diverse scenarios, and interpret opportunities. The themes of VUCA include leadership, knowledge management, and sense-making, planning and readiness considerations, process management and resource systems, functional responsiveness, recovery systems and forward practices, systemic and behavioral failures, and the need for a deep understanding of the environment.
| Signal | Change | 10y horizon | Driving force |
|---|---|---|---|
| VUCA framework | Understanding and navigating volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous situations | Organizations are better equipped to anticipate and adapt to challenges | The need for strategic foresight and adaptability in an increasingly complex world |