The article discusses the transition from a knowledge economy to an allocation economy in the age of AI. With the advancements in AI, tasks like summarizing are being handed over to AI models like ChatGPT, changing the skills required in the workforce. The author explores the qualities that model managers in the allocation economy would need, such as a coherent vision, a clear sense of taste, the ability to evaluate talent, and knowing when to get into the details. The article also raises questions about the impact of the allocation economy on society and the need to ensure the inclusion of the entire economy in this transition. Overall, it highlights the changing dynamics of work and the role of AI in shaping the future of work.
| Signal | Change | 10y horizon | Driving force |
|---|---|---|---|
| Transition from knowledge economy to allocation economy | From relying on personal knowledge to allocating and managing resources | More emphasis on resource allocation and management skills | Increasing capabilities of AI in knowledge summarization |
| Individual contributors become model managers | From doing the work to managing AI models | Junior employees expected to allocate work to AI models | Increased reliance on AI for task execution |
| Qualities needed for model managers | Coherent vision, clear taste, ability to evaluate talent, knowing when to get into the details | Wider distribution of skills needed for managing AI models | Enhancing the creative potential of individuals in the economy |
| Transition not likely to happen overnight | Gradual adoption of language models in different sectors and tasks | Slow integration due to factors like regulation, inertia, and risk | Pace of adoption and integration of AI models |
| Bifurcation of humans in the economy | Highly skilled workers complementing AI tools will reap rewards | Advantages for those who can effectively allocate intelligence | Stratification based on ability to use AI tools |
| Need for societal support in the transition | Ensuring the rest of the economy adapts to changes | Importance of bringing the entire economy along in the shift | Necessity of managing the transition effectively |