The text discusses the hype and potential drawbacks of generative AI. While the technology is highly valued and widely discussed, the actual revenue generated from it is still relatively low. The current revenue mainly comes from writing code and text, but other potential customers may lose interest quickly. The author raises concerns that if generative AI fails to live up to its promises, it could have significant economic and geopolitical implications. The text also highlights the limitations of generative AI, such as its tendency to produce false information and its inability to reliably interface with external tools. Overall, the author questions the widespread belief that generative AI will revolutionize the world and emphasizes the need for a more realistic approach.
| Signal | Change | 10y horizon | Driving force |
|---|---|---|---|
| Generative AI hype | Potential correction in generative AI economy | Decreased reliance on generative AI technology | Overvaluation and lack of revenue |
| Potential loss of customers | Decreased usage of generative AI by non-coders | Open source alternatives become more popular | Limited financial resources and negative experiences |
| Policy implications | Tensions and unnecessary conflicts due to overestimating generative AI | Potential reevaluation of AI policies and regulations | Belief in generative AI as a world-changing technology |
| Misconception of Generative AI as AGI | Recognition that generative AI is not equivalent to AGI | Focus on addressing core problems and generalization research | Technoptimism and stock market incentives |
| Irrelevance in art world | Limited usefulness of generative AI in art | Preference for human-created designs and control over the artistic process | Need for consistent themes and customization in art |