The essay by Paulo Soeiro de Carvalho explores three narratives about the future of work in the context of technological transformation driven by AI: 1) Mass Displacement, which warns of job loss outpacing societal adaptation, resulting in economic irrelevance for vast populations; 2) Leap of Consciousness, where while jobs are destroyed, new ones emerge as technology reshapes the labor market, emphasizing human distinctiveness and adaptability; and 3) Managed Deceleration, where external factors slow technological progress, allowing time for society to adapt. The essay stresses that adaptation capacity is crucial for navigating these futures, and that a simplistic optimistic or pessimistic viewpoint on the future of work is inadequate; instead, we must focus on preparedness to address these complex challenges.
| name | description | change | 10-year | driving-force | relevancy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mass Displacement of Jobs | The pace of job displacement due to automation may surpass the ability of society to adapt. | A potential shift from stable employment to high unemployment rates and economic instability. | A future with sustained high unemployment affecting social mobility and political stability. | Rapid advancement of AI and automation technologies changing job markets. | 5 |
| Economic Irrelevance | Growing segments of the population may become economically irrelevant despite social contributions. | A shift from jobs as primary economic engagement to lack of economic utility for many individuals. | A society grappling with increasing numbers of economically ‘useless’ individuals. | Increasing automation leading to a surplus of labor and redefined economic structures. | 4 |
| Transformation of Work Identity | Work is a key aspect of identity; loss of jobs may lead to identity crises for many individuals. | From job-based identity to a need for new sources of meaning and belonging outside work. | A redefined social fabric where identity is less tied to employment and more to personal fulfillment. | Declining employment rates causing societal shifts in identity and self-worth frameworks. | 5 |
| Emergence of New Economic Roles | New job roles may develop in response to the changing technological landscape. | From traditional roles to the demand for skills in areas that emphasize human distinctiveness. | A job market filled with roles that require creativity, empathy, and relational intelligence. | The rise of AI and technological platforms situated at the intersection of human skills and automation. | 4 |
| Urgency for Reskilling | Continuous learning and reskilling become vital for employability in the changing job landscape. | The transition from static skills to adaptive, continuous learning requirements. | A workforce that prioritizes and values ongoing education and skill development. | The acceleration of technological changes requiring new skill sets for job market adaptability. | 5 |
| Need for Alternative Value Models | As traditional employment decreases, societies may need to explore alternative value distribution models. | A move from wage-based economies to other mechanisms of wealth distribution. | Implementation of concepts like Universal Basic Income to ensure economic participation. | Widespread job loss requiring new approaches to wealth distribution and social stability. | 4 |
| Possible Deceleration of Technology Adoption | Regulatory or geopolitical factors might slow down the pace of technological change. | From rapid technological disruption to a more managed approach to technological evolution. | A more manageable transition period allowing society to adapt to changes gradually. | Increased regulatory frameworks responding to the societal impacts of rapid technology adoption. | 3 |
| name | description |
|---|---|
| Mass Displacement of Jobs | Rapid job losses may exceed the creation of new roles, leading to elevated unemployment and social instability. |
| Economic Irrelevance | Large segments of the population may become economically irrelevant as automation replaces jobs, affecting social contracts. |
| Weakening of Wages | Shrinking job markets could result in insufficient wage distribution, exacerbating economic inequalities. |
| Failure of Social Security Systems | Welfare states reliant on employment-linked contributions may collapse, risking societal stability. |
| Need for New Identity Structures | Changing job landscapes could disrupt individuals’ sense of identity, purpose, and social recognition. |
| Inadequate Skill Transition | Slow adaptation in training and reskilling could worsen unemployment and economic disruption. |
| Precarious Financial Participation | Access to capital income through ownership could exclude those without employment, deepening economic divides. |
| Political Volatility | Fractured social contracts might lead to increased political unrest and instability due to economic exclusion. |
| Insufficient Job Creation | Emerging jobs may not be created quickly enough to replace those lost, particularly during transitions. |
| Failure to Redesign Economic Constitutions | Inadequate reforms to financial systems to address wealth distribution may disrupt societal functioning. |
| Regulatory Challenges | Insufficient governance could lead to unchecked technological disruptions, threatening social stability. |
| Loss of Human Value in Work | Shift towards automation may devalue human roles, necessitating a redefinition of societal roles and worth. |
| name | description |
|---|---|
| Preparedness over Binary Thinking | Emphasizing the need for preparedness in addressing the future of work, beyond traditional optimism and pessimism. |
| Narratives over Forecasts | Utilizing narratives to explore possible futures and systemic changes, rather than relying solely on predictive forecasts. |
| Emphasis on Adaptation Capacity | Focusing on how quickly societies can adapt to changes, including value transfers and education, as a key variable in future scenarios. |
| Shift from Execution to Human Distinctiveness | As automation increases, there’s a growing value on uniquely human skills like creativity, critical thinking, and emotional intelligence. |
| Reconceptualization of Work and Identity | Exploring new definitions of purpose, belonging, and recognition as work becomes less central to identity. |
| Focus on Structural Systems and Policies | Addressing structural issues in the economic and social systems as work dynamics change under technological pressures. |
| Need for Alternative Value-Transfer Models | The exploration of new models like Universal Basic Income as traditional income distribution mechanisms weaken. |
| Balancing Acceleration with Governance | The need for regulatory and governance frameworks to manage the pace of technological transformation effectively. |
| Building Psychological Resilience | Recognizing the importance of mental health and emotional resilience in navigating transitions during job disruptions. |
| Expansion of Digital Economy | Growth of economic opportunities through new infrastructures, such as digital platforms that facilitate novel job creation. |
| name | description |
|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence (AI) | AI systems, especially neural-network-based, transforming cognitive tasks across various sectors. |
| Automation | Technologies automating routine tasks, impacting traditional job roles and structures. |
| Generative Models | AI models that can create content across text, images, and video, reshaping production processes. |
| Natural Language Processing | Transforming how users interact with technology, making interfaces more intuitive and accessible. |
| Universal Basic Income (UBI) | A proposed economic model to provide basic income to citizens, gaining relevance as job structures change. |
| New Investment Platforms | Emerging platforms enabling broader access to capital income and democratizing investing. |
| Skill Transition Mechanisms | Systems and programs to support continuous learning and reskilling in response to job market shifts. |
| name | description |
|---|---|
| Disruption of Employment Stability | Automation and AI may lead to significant job displacement without adequate job creation, causing instability in the labor market. |
| Socioeconomic Polarization | Growing job displacement could fragment society, leading to polarization and decreased social mobility. |
| Redesign of Social Contracts | As the nature of work changes, societies may need to rethink economic participation and value transfer mechanisms. |
| Rise of Alternative Income Models | Universal Basic Income and other models may gain traction as traditional wage systems weaken. |
| Identity Beyond Employment | People may need to find new sources of purpose and identity in a future where work is less central to life. |
| Skills Shift Towards Human Distinctiveness | The demand for creative, empathetic, and critical thinking skills may increase in an automated future. |
| Governance of Technology Adoption | Regulation may slow technological adoption, impacting labor market transformations and capacities for adaptation. |
| Mental Health and Resilience | With increased stress from job displacement and rapid change, mental health will become crucial for employability. |