In recent decades, progressive politics has been supported by influential figures in capital, technology, and communication. However, the ephemeral nature of this economy is starting to unravel as the importance of material goods becomes evident. Traditional industries like manufacturing and agriculture have thrived while media companies and tech firms have suffered losses. The progressive economy is facing challenges from union militancy, discontent in the media, and widening class distinctions. Additionally, the preferred urban areas of progressives are experiencing financial pressures. This unraveling of the progressive economy may lead to conflict between leftist activists and wealthy oligarchs.
| Signal | Change | 10y horizon | Driving force |
|---|---|---|---|
| Progressive economy unraveling | Shift from progressive to uncertain | Increased conflict and unrest | Recognition of class distinctions |
| Labor unrest at universities | Exploitative academia to fairer system | More equitable treatment of adjuncts | Desire for fair compensation |
| Progressive cities facing financial pressures | Decline of progressive cities | Higher taxes on the rich, deficits | Mounting financial pressures |
| Conflict between activists and oligarchs | Tension between Leftist activists and | Divisions over welfare and climate | Conflicting interests and priorities |
| Decline of Trumpism | Transformation of Trumpism into a cult | Shift of big money towards GOP | Loss of adhesive between groups |
| Pandemic’s impact on the economy | Boost and then decline of certain | Increased inflation and supply chain | Rising interest rates and bailouts |
| Focus on blue-collar workers | Shift from white-collar to blue-collar | Rise of technically capable workers | Changing labor market dynamics |
| Progressive solutions may be unaffordable | Shift from conjuring solutions to | Financial strain on blue states | Limited resources for freebies |
| Businesses leaving progressive states | Exodus of businesses from progressive | Shift to conservative states | Better opportunities and lower costs |
| Fractures in the progressive alliance | Growing tensions and conflicts within | Pessimism about the future, conflict | Disagreements on priorities and policies |