Futures

The Impact of AI on Wages and Human Adaptation in the Workforce, (from page 20241222.)

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Summary

A University of Virginia professor, Anton Korinek, discussed the potential wage collapse due to advancements in AI, which could lead to significant shifts in the workforce. While AI may enhance growth and wages initially, it poses a risk of diminishing wages as AI capabilities increase. However, historical trends suggest that as machines take over tasks, humans adapt by focusing on higher-order activities. This ongoing human adaptability has led to the emergence of new professions that were previously unimaginable, indicating that as basic needs are met by machines, work may transition toward fulfillment and community value rather than mere economic necessity.

Signals

name description change 10-year driving-force relevancy
Wage Collapse Due to AI AI improvements could lead to a significant decline in wages across various job sectors. Shift from traditional employment models to potential wage collapse due to AI capabilities. Widespread adaptation to AI may redefine job roles and wages in unexpected ways. Increased efficiency and capability of AI systems potentially displacing human labor. 4
Human Adaptation to AI Humans have a historical pattern of adapting to machines taking over tasks. Shift from traditional jobs to new roles focused on higher-order activities when AI is involved. Emergence of unpredictable professions as humans adapt to AI advancements. Human capability and creativity drive the creation of new professions and activities. 5
Valuing Human Element A trend toward valuing human-created work over machine-produced items. A societal shift to valuing artisanal and human-centered professions over automated outputs. Increased demand for human touch in professions as AI systems fulfill basic needs. Societal appreciation for authenticity and the human experience in work. 4
Emergence of New Professions New job categories are arising as society adapts to technological advancements. Transition from traditional job structures to new, unpredictable professions. A diverse range of new professions could emerge, focused on human experience and creativity. Continuous expansion of human capability and changing societal values. 4
Shift to Self-Actualization in Work Work may evolve from necessity to self-actualization and belonging. Move from economically-driven work to roles focused on personal fulfillment and community. Work environments may prioritize personal growth and community over mere economic survival. The need for individuals to find purpose and belonging in their work. 5

Concerns

name description relevancy
Wage Collapse Due to AI Improvements in AI may lead to a collapse in wages across various workforce segments, potentially increasing inequality. 4
Job Displacement AI advancements could eliminate entire job categories, leading to unemployment and societal shifts. 5
Dependence on Human Adaptation The reliance on humans to adapt to AI advancements may not always be successful, risking widespread job loss if adaptation fails. 4
Evolving Value of Work As machines meet basic needs, societal valuation of professions may shift, potentially causing instability in the job market. 3
Unpredictability of New Professions The emergence of new professions may be impossible to predict, leading to gaps in education and workforce preparation. 3

Behaviors

name description relevancy
Shift to Higher-Order Activities As AI systems become more capable, humans transition from routine tasks to more complex and creative endeavors. 5
Emergence of Unpredictable Professions New job categories and professions emerge that were previously unimaginable as society adapts to technological advancements. 5
Value on Human Craftsmanship There is a growing appreciation for human-made products and experiences, contrasting with machine-produced goods. 4
Work as Actualization and Belonging With basic needs met by machines, human work increasingly focuses on self-actualization and social connections rather than economic necessity. 5
Historical Adaptation to Technological Change Humans have historically adapted to technological changes by revaluing their skills and shifting focus, a pattern expected to continue. 4

Technologies

description relevancy src
AI is advancing rapidly, influencing economic structures and job markets, with potential wage impacts and growth benefits. 5 faa0e4de05145c04c5d22a8449a70d95
The evolution of how humans collaborate with machines as they become more capable, leading to new job roles and responsibilities. 4 faa0e4de05145c04c5d22a8449a70d95
Emergence of unpredictable job roles as society adapts to technological advancements and shifting values. 4 faa0e4de05145c04c5d22a8449a70d95
Increased value placed on human-created goods, contrasting with machine-produced items, reflecting a shift in societal values. 3 faa0e4de05145c04c5d22a8449a70d95

Issues

name description relevancy
AI-Induced Wage Collapse Continuous improvements in AI may lead to a significant drop in wages across various sectors of the workforce. 5
Shift in Human Work Focus As AI takes over specific tasks, humans may transition to higher-order activities rather than becoming obsolete. 4
Emergence of Unpredictable Professions New job categories may arise that are currently unimaginable as society adapts to advancements in AI. 4
Value of Human Element in Work The increasing value placed on human-created goods and experiences, even when machines can produce better alternatives. 5
Shift from Economic Necessity to Self-Actualization Work may increasingly shift from being economically driven to focusing on fulfillment and personal growth. 4