The text discusses the challenges facing the field of futures studies, particularly in the integration of scenario development and forecasting. The author reflects on the disconnection between the qualitative aspects of foresight, such as imagination, and the quantitative methods commonly used in forecasting. Concerns are raised about the influence of AI on scenario processes, emphasizing that good scenarios stem from human imagination. The disconnect between what futurists should emphasize—multiple possibilities—and what clients demand—predictions of a singular future—is highlighted. The author stresses that scenario development is valuable only when imagination is encouraged and free from present constraints. The piece concludes by noting the importance of desire in driving imagination and suggests the need for an education shift towards complexity sciences to empower future generations.
| name | description | change | 10-year | driving-force | relevancy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Declining Interchange Between Foresight Approaches | Limited exchange of ideas between forecasting and scenario-based foresight communities. | Shift from a collaborative knowledge-sharing environment to one with silos between methodologies. | In 10 years, foresight methodologies may become more integrated, creating a hybrid approach to prediction and scenario design. | A growing recognition of the limitations of both forecasting and scenario methodologies may drive integration efforts. | 4 |
| AI in Scenario Development | Concerns about AI’s role in generating futures scenarios over human imagination. | Transition from human-led to AI-driven scenario generation, risking imagination loss. | Human intuition and creativity in scenario building may diminish as AI takes over more processes. | The rapid advancement of AI technologies encourages reliance on AI for future scenario creation. | 5 |
| Pressure for Predictive Certainty in Foresight | Clients demanding definitive future outcomes, impacting foresight processes. | Move from a futures exploration approach to a more deterministic forecasting approach. | In 10 years, the foresight field may struggle with credibility as forecasting dominates, overshadowing true foresight. | Clients’ desire for certainty in an uncertain world pushes practitioners toward simplification. | 5 |
| Educational Gaps in Non-linear Dynamics | Lack of understanding of complexity and non-linearity among students and practitioners. | Shift from linear to complex dynamic models in foresight education. | Future education may emphasize systems thinking, enabling better futures design through understanding complexity. | The need for a more adaptable approach in an increasingly complex world drives educational reform. | 4 |
| Disempowerment Affecting Imagination | The relationship between personal empowerment and one’s ability to imagine futures. | Recognition that personal power affects imaginative capacity in scenario development processes. | Foresight practices may incorporate personal empowerment techniques to enhance imaginative capabilities. | A growing awareness of mental health and systemic disempowerment encourages holistic approaches in foresight. | 5 |
| name | description |
|---|---|
| Integration of AI in Foresight Processes | Rapid integration of AI in scenario development may undermine human creativity, limiting the diversity of imagined futures. |
| Pressure for Forecasting Certainty | Growing demand from clients for definitive future predictions may stifle innovative and imaginative scenario development. |
| Loss of Traditional Foresight Practices | The shift towards forecasting risks losing essential foresight practices that prioritize imaginative and qualitative approaches. |
| Underdeveloped Weak Signal Identification in AI | AI models struggle with identifying weak signals, potentially leading to overlooked emerging trends and insights in futures work. |
| Disempowerment and Lack of Imagination | Social disempowerment can lead to a lack of desire and imagination, resulting in constrained futures thinking. |
| Education System Gaps in Complexity Thinking | Current educational paradigms may neglect teaching about complexity and non-linearity, hindering future generations’ imaginative capacities. |
| name | description |
|---|---|
| Integration of AI in Scenario Development | Exploring how AI can assist in futures processes while recognizing limitations in imaginative capacity. |
| Shift from Multiple Futures to Forecasting | A trend where practitioners feel pressured to deliver singular futures rather than exploring multiple potential outcomes. |
| Importance of Imagination in Futures Work | Highlighting the necessity of imagination in developing meaningful scenarios and reframing present realities. |
| Educational Reform for Foresight Purpose | Advocating for teaching complexity science and chaos theory to empower future generations in scenario thinking. |
| Desire as a Driver for Imagination | Connecting personal desire and empowerment to the ability to envision diverse futures. |
| Critique of Current Foresight Practices | A growing critical perspective on how foresight is being practiced and the value of traditional methods being overlooked. |
| name | description |
|---|---|
| AI in Foresight | Utilizing AI for trend exploration and scenario development, although concerns arise about its ability to imagine new futures. |
| Neuroscience Connections in Foresight | Emerging links between foresight practices and neuroscience to enhance understanding of human judgment and imagination. |
| Machine Learning for Signal Identification | Developing ML models for identifying weak signals in foresight processes, though still in early stages of effectiveness. |
| Complexity Science Education | Integrating complexity science and chaos theory into education to promote understanding of non-linearity and empower imagination. |
| name | description |
|---|---|
| Integration of AI in Futures Work | Concerns over AI’s role in futures and foresight, particularly in scenario development and imagination. |
| Pressure for Predictive Forecasting | Increasing client demand for definitive forecasts rather than scenarios, impacting the essence of foresight. |
| Educating Future Generations in Complexity Science | Need for education in complexity science to enhance understanding of non-linear systems and empower imagination. |
| Challenging Traditional Assumptions in Futures Processes | The necessity to challenge existing assumptions to foster broader thinking in futures scenarios. |
| Disempowerment and Imagination Constraints | The link between societal disempowerment and reduced imaginative capacity affecting futures thinking. |
| Foresight Vocabulary Misuse | Concern over foresight terminology being misapplied in a shift towards forecasting methodologies. |
| Weak Signal Identification in AI Models | Current issues in AI’s ability to effectively identify weak signals, which are crucial for foresight. |